Instituto Cordoba 0–2 Central Cordoba de Santiago

Instituto Cordoba

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Central Cordoba de Santiago

L. Besozzi 90+3'

L. Gamba 58'

4/29/2023

Liga Profesional Argentina · Round 14Estadio Juan Domingo Perón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Instituto Cordoba47%

×Draw29%

Central Cordoba de Santiago24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Instituto CordobaExpected goals in this matchCentral Cordoba de Santiago

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

0.81

Instituto Cordoba

1.28

Central Cordoba de Santiago

0.81

Instituto Cordoba creates 58% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 20 away

1.15

creates per match

0.83

0.79

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Instituto Cordoba

1.15

Central Cordoba de Santiago

0.83

allows per match

Instituto Cordoba

0.79

Central Cordoba de Santiago

1.41

-0.03on par

finishing

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

Instituto Cordoba-0.03on par

Central Cordoba de Santiago+0.12scores more

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Instituto Cordoba ↓

Central Cordoba de Santiago →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Instituto Cordoba or draw

76%

Instituto Cordoba or Central Cordoba de Santiago

71%

Draw or Central Cordoba de Santiago

53%

Winning margin

Instituto Cordoba wins by 2+

22%

Central Cordoba de Santiago wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Instituto Cordoba 1+ goals

72%

Instituto Cordoba 2+ goals

37%

Instituto Cordoba 3+ goals

14%

Central Cordoba de Santiago 1+ goals

56%

Central Cordoba de Santiago 2+ goals

19%

Central Cordoba de Santiago 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Instituto Cordoba (draw refunded)

67%

Central Cordoba de Santiago (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Instituto Cordoba at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.79 · 17 matches

Central Cordoba de Santiago away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.41 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Instituto Cordoba attack 1.15 + Central Cordoba de Santiago defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.28

Central Cordoba de Santiago attack 0.83 + Instituto Cordoba defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Instituto Cordoba scores more

47%

level

29%

Central Cordoba de Santiago scores more

24%

Instituto Cordoba at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Instituto Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

M. Ledesma

Central Cordoba de Santiago · G

7.9

Match Events

13'

44'

58'

61'

61'

L. Albertengo← N. Linares

62'

Julián Navas Granados

67'

Roberto Bochi

68'

C. Rius← J. Navas

69'

J. Soraire← B. Farioli

75'

B. Cuello← G. Graciani

75'

N. Barrientos← G. Lodico

75'

F. Castelli← G. Torres

76'

Mauro Pittón

81'

Jonathan Bay

82'

E. Kalinski← L. Maciel

83'

L. Besozzi← L. Gamba

87'

Marcelo Benítez

87'

J. Varela← J. Bay

90+3'

L. Besozzi↳ F. Castelli

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

InstitutoCentral

Overview

60%Possession40%

22Total Shots7

6Corners1

6Fouls14

Shots

22Total Shots7

4On Target2

12Off Target2

6Blocked3

15Inside Box3

7Outside Box4

Passing

60%Possession40%

437Total Passes299

332Accurate Passes175

76%Pass Accuracy59%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

6Fouls14

4Yellow Cards3

0Offsides3