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Central Cordoba de Santiago vs Instituto Cordoba — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Central Cordoba de Santiago
Central Cordoba de Santiago
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Instituto Cordoba
Instituto Cordoba
K. Vázquez 85'
F. Cabral 48'
G. Rodríguez 39'
9/13/2024Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 14Estadio Alfredo Terrera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Central Cordoba de Santiago41%
×Draw30%
Instituto Cordoba29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Central Cordoba de Santiago
1.16
Instituto Cordoba
0.93

Central Cordoba de Santiago creates 25% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 14 away

creates per match

Central Cordoba de Santiago
1.27
Instituto Cordoba
0.95

allows per match

Central Cordoba de Santiago
0.91
Instituto Cordoba
1.05

finishing

Central Cordoba de Santiago+0.08on par
Instituto Cordoba-0.31scores less

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Cordoba de Santiago ↓

Instituto Cordoba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Central Cordoba de Santiago or draw
71%
Central Cordoba de Santiago or Instituto Cordoba
70%
Draw or Instituto Cordoba
59%

Winning margin

Central Cordoba de Santiago wins by 2+
17%
Instituto Cordoba wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Central Cordoba de Santiago 1+ goals
69%
Central Cordoba de Santiago 2+ goals
32%
Central Cordoba de Santiago 3+ goals
11%
Instituto Cordoba 1+ goals
61%
Instituto Cordoba 2+ goals
24%
Instituto Cordoba 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Central Cordoba de Santiago (draw refunded)
58%
Instituto Cordoba (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Cordoba de Santiago at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.91 · 17 matches

Instituto Cordoba away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.05 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Cordoba de Santiago attack 1.27 + Instituto Cordoba defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.16

Instituto Cordoba attack 0.95 + Central Cordoba de Santiago defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Central Cordoba de Santiago scores more
41%
level
30%
Instituto Cordoba scores more
29%

Central Cordoba de Santiago at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Central Cordoba de Santiago will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32
K. VázquezCentral Cordoba de SantiagoCentral Cordoba de Santiago · M
8.2

Match Events

39'
G. Rodríguez↳ F. Suárez
46'
F. Cabral← E. Cabrera
48'
F. Cabral↳ J. Florentín
66'
N. Dubersarsky← J. Acevedo
68'
N. Quagliata← L. Varaldo
75'
B. Cuello← G. Rodríguez
75'
D. Batallini← F. Díaz
78'
L. Angulo← R. Atencio
80'
Lucas Rodríguez
82'
S. Romero← D. Puebla
82'
I. Russo← F. Suárez
83'
Fernando Alarcón
85'
K. Vázquez↳ L. Angulo
89'
M. Palavecino← M. Godoy

Possession

51%Central

Shots

22Central

Pass accuracy

51%Central

Statistics

CentralInstituto
Overview
51%Possession49%
22Total Shots11
1.56Expected Goals (xG)1.38
3Corners1
9Fouls7
Shots
22Total Shots11
9On Target4
10Off Target5
3Blocked2
13Inside Box8
9Outside Box3
Passing
51%Possession49%
415Total Passes402
309Accurate Passes286
74%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
2Saves7
0.55Goals Prevented0.55
Discipline
9Fouls7
0Yellow Cards2
0Offsides2

Liga Profesional Argentina: Central Cordoba de Santiago 2–1 Instituto Cordoba

Central Cordoba de Santiago beat Instituto Cordoba 2-1 in Liga Profesional Argentina on September 13, 2024.

Goals: G. Rodríguez (39'), F. Cabral (48'), K. Vázquez (85').

Central Cordoba de Santiago controlled possession (51%) and registered 22 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio Alfredo Terrera in Santiago del Estero, Provincia de Santiago del Est.