Central Cordoba de Santiago 1–3 Instituto Cordoba

Central Cordoba de Santiago

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Instituto Cordoba

P. Ortega 72'

M. Klimowicz 66', 37'

P. Vegetti 58'

3/30/2019

Primera Nacional · Round 22Estadio Alfredo Terrera (Santiago del Estero, Provincia de Santiago del Est)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Central Cordoba de Santiago38%

×Draw30%

Instituto Cordoba31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Central Cordoba de SantiagoExpected goals in this matchInstituto Cordoba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

0.96

Central Cordoba de Santiago

1.09

Instituto Cordoba

0.96

Central Cordoba de Santiago creates 14% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 72 away

1.08

creates per match

0.92

1.00

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Central Cordoba de Santiago

1.08

Instituto Cordoba

0.92

allows per match

Central Cordoba de Santiago

1.00

Instituto Cordoba

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Central Cordoba de Santiago+0.00on par

Instituto Cordoba+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Cordoba de Santiago ↓

Instituto Cordoba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Central Cordoba de Santiago or draw

69%

Central Cordoba de Santiago or Instituto Cordoba

70%

Draw or Instituto Cordoba

62%

Winning margin

Central Cordoba de Santiago wins by 2+

15%

Instituto Cordoba wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Central Cordoba de Santiago 1+ goals

66%

Central Cordoba de Santiago 2+ goals

30%

Central Cordoba de Santiago 3+ goals

10%

Instituto Cordoba 1+ goals

62%

Instituto Cordoba 2+ goals

25%

Instituto Cordoba 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Central Cordoba de Santiago (draw refunded)

55%

Instituto Cordoba (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Cordoba de Santiago at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.00 · 12 matches

Instituto Cordoba away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.10 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Cordoba de Santiago attack 1.08 + Instituto Cordoba defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.09

Instituto Cordoba attack 0.92 + Central Cordoba de Santiago defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Central Cordoba de Santiago scores more

38%

level

30%

Instituto Cordoba scores more

31%

Central Cordoba de Santiago at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Central Cordoba de Santiago will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

M. Klimowicz

53'

I. Antonio← N. Watson

55'

P. Ortega← E. Barrionuevo

58'

P. Vegetti

65'

A. Pinto← C. Vega

66'

M. Klimowicz

71'

J. Arguello← A. Aguirre

72'

P. Ortega

79'

L. Robles← J. Bay

84'

F. Affranchino← S. Navarro

Central

Instituto

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: G. Coleoni

55'▲P. Ortega←▼E. Barrionuevo

65'▲A. Pinto←▼C. Vega

79'▲L. Robles←▼J. Bay

Central Cordoba de Santiago substitutes

OrtegaPintoRoblesPérezCavallottiDutariRamírez

Manager: C. Zabala

53'▲I. Antonio←▼N. Watson

71'▲J. Arguello←▼A. Aguirre

84'▲F. Affranchino←▼S. Navarro

Instituto Cordoba substitutes

AntonioArguelloAffranchinoCaneverBortoliPinoGarro

Primera Nacional: Central Cordoba de Santiago 1–3 Instituto Cordoba

Instituto Cordoba beat Central Cordoba de Santiago 3-1 in Primera Nacional on March 30, 2019.

Goals: M. Klimowicz (37', 66'), P. Vegetti (58'), P. Ortega (72').

The match was played at Estadio Alfredo Terrera (Santiago del Estero, Provincia de Santiago del Est).

Central Cordoba de Santiago vs Instituto Cordoba — Primera Nacional 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera Nacional: Central Cordoba de Santiago 1–3 Instituto Cordoba