Instituto Cordoba 2–0 Argentinos JRS

Instituto Cordoba

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Argentinos JRS

G. A. Lodico 90' (pen)

A. Luna 45' (pen)

9/14/2025

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 8Estadio Presidente Peron

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Instituto Cordoba41%

×Draw30%

Argentinos JRS29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Instituto CordobaExpected goals in this matchArgentinos JRS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

0.91

Instituto Cordoba

1.14

Argentinos JRS

0.91

Instituto Cordoba creates 25% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 13 away

1.15

creates per match

1.03

0.79

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Instituto Cordoba

1.15

Argentinos JRS

1.03

allows per match

Instituto Cordoba

0.79

Argentinos JRS

1.13

-0.03on par

finishing

-0.41scores less than expected

finishing

Instituto Cordoba-0.03on par

Argentinos JRS-0.41scores less

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Instituto Cordoba ↓

Argentinos JRS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Instituto Cordoba or draw

71%

Instituto Cordoba or Argentinos JRS

70%

Draw or Argentinos JRS

59%

Winning margin

Instituto Cordoba wins by 2+

17%

Argentinos JRS wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Instituto Cordoba 1+ goals

68%

Instituto Cordoba 2+ goals

32%

Instituto Cordoba 3+ goals

11%

Argentinos JRS 1+ goals

60%

Argentinos JRS 2+ goals

23%

Argentinos JRS 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Instituto Cordoba (draw refunded)

59%

Argentinos JRS (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Instituto Cordoba at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.79 · 17 matches

Argentinos JRS away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.13 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Instituto Cordoba attack 1.15 + Argentinos JRS defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.14

Argentinos JRS attack 1.03 + Instituto Cordoba defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Instituto Cordoba scores more

41%

level

30%

Argentinos JRS scores more

29%

Instituto Cordoba at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Instituto Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

G. A. Lodico

Instituto Cordoba · M

8.3

Match Events

42'

Erik Godoy

43'

Tomás Molina

45'

Alex Luna

45'

A. LunaPenalty

46'

L. Giaccone← N. Oroz

64'

J. Mendez← D. Puebla

64'

J. E. Cordoba Mosquera← N. Cordero

67'

J. Gho← S. Prieto

67'

E. Viveros← L. Lozano

67'

I. Sosa← H. Lopez

76'

R. Bentancourt← A. Lescano

79'

Francisco Álvarez

81'

L. Klimowicz← A. Luna

85'

88'

88'

90+4'

90+3'

90+2'

F. Mac Allister← G. A. Lodico

90'

G. A. LodicoPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

InstitutoArgentinos

Overview

29%Possession71%

9Total Shots13

2.07Expected Goals (xG)2.02

2Corners4

19Fouls12

Shots

9Total Shots13

7On Target2

1Off Target7

1Blocked4

6Inside Box9

3Outside Box4

Passing

29%Possession71%

229Total Passes590

160Accurate Passes503

70%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

0.92Goals Prevented0.92

Discipline

19Fouls12

3Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

1Offsides2