Argentinos JRS 3–1 Instituto Cordoba

Argentinos JRS

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Instituto Cordoba

I. Sosa 89'

J. Herrera 64'

T. Molina 61'

G. Requena 71'

5/11/2025

Liga Profesional Argentina · 1st Phase - 8th FinalsEstadio Diego Armando Maradona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Argentinos JRS41%

×Draw32%

Instituto Cordoba27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Argentinos JRSExpected goals in this matchInstituto Cordoba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

0.81

Argentinos JRS

1.06

Instituto Cordoba

0.81

Argentinos JRS creates 31% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 14 away

1.08

creates per match

0.95

0.68

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Argentinos JRS

1.08

Instituto Cordoba

0.95

allows per match

Argentinos JRS

0.68

Instituto Cordoba

1.05

+0.23scores more than expected

finishing

-0.31scores less than expected

finishing

Argentinos JRS+0.23scores more

Instituto Cordoba-0.31scores less

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Argentinos JRS ↓

Instituto Cordoba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Argentinos JRS or draw

73%

Argentinos JRS or Instituto Cordoba

68%

Draw or Instituto Cordoba

59%

Winning margin

Argentinos JRS wins by 2+

16%

Instituto Cordoba wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Argentinos JRS 1+ goals

65%

Argentinos JRS 2+ goals

29%

Argentinos JRS 3+ goals

9%

Instituto Cordoba 1+ goals

56%

Instituto Cordoba 2+ goals

19%

Instituto Cordoba 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Argentinos JRS (draw refunded)

60%

Instituto Cordoba (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Argentinos JRS at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.68 · 13 matches

Instituto Cordoba away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.05 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Argentinos JRS attack 1.08 + Instituto Cordoba defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.06

Instituto Cordoba attack 0.95 + Argentinos JRS defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Argentinos JRS scores more

41%

level

32%

Instituto Cordoba scores more

27%

Argentinos JRS at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Argentinos JRS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

R. Vega

Argentinos JRS · D

7.7

Match Events

27'

Tomás Molina

27'

Nicolás Zalazar

60'

I. Sosa← E. Viveros

60'

J. Dellarossa← L. Klimowicz

61'

T. Molina

64'

J. Herrera↳ A. Lescano

68'

D. Puebla← J. Lazaro

68'

D. Batallini← G. A. Lodico

71'

G. Requena↳ A. Luna

76'

J. Acevedo← S. Moreyra

76'

78'

78'

80'

86'

86'

87'

87'

D. Porcel← J. Herrera

89'

I. Sosa

90+1'

Federico Fattori

90+1'

Juan Franco

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ArgentinosInstituto

Overview

69%Possession31%

13Total Shots12

4Corners1

15Fouls9

Shots

13Total Shots12

4On Target2

3Off Target5

6Blocked5

7Inside Box5

6Outside Box7

Passing

69%Possession31%

476Total Passes213

416Accurate Passes149

87%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

15Fouls9

2Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

1Offsides2

Match Recap: Argentinos JRS vs Instituto Cordoba

Argentinos JRS beat Instituto Cordoba 3-1 in Liga Profesional Argentina on May 11, 2025.

Goals: T. Molina (61'), J. Herrera (64'), G. Requena (71'), I. Sosa (89').

Argentinos JRS controlled possession (69%) and registered 13 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estadio Diego Armando Maradona in Buenos Aires.

Argentinos JRS vs Instituto Cordoba — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Argentinos JRS vs Instituto Cordoba