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Argentinos JRS vs Instituto Cordoba — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Argentinos JRS
Argentinos JRS
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Instituto Cordoba
Instituto Cordoba
7/6/2023Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · Round 23Estadio Diego Armando Maradona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Argentinos JRS41%
×Draw32%
Instituto Cordoba27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Argentinos JRS
1.06
Instituto Cordoba
0.81

Argentinos JRS creates 31% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 14 away

creates per match

Argentinos JRS
1.08
Instituto Cordoba
0.95

allows per match

Argentinos JRS
0.68
Instituto Cordoba
1.05

finishing

Argentinos JRS+0.23scores more
Instituto Cordoba-0.31scores less

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Argentinos JRS ↓

Instituto Cordoba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Argentinos JRS or draw
73%
Argentinos JRS or Instituto Cordoba
68%
Draw or Instituto Cordoba
59%

Winning margin

Argentinos JRS wins by 2+
16%
Instituto Cordoba wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Argentinos JRS 1+ goals
65%
Argentinos JRS 2+ goals
29%
Argentinos JRS 3+ goals
9%
Instituto Cordoba 1+ goals
56%
Instituto Cordoba 2+ goals
19%
Instituto Cordoba 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Argentinos JRS (draw refunded)
60%
Instituto Cordoba (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Argentinos JRS at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.68 · 13 matches

Instituto Cordoba away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.05 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Argentinos JRS attack 1.08 + Instituto Cordoba defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.06

Instituto Cordoba attack 0.95 + Argentinos JRS defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Argentinos JRS scores more
41%
level
32%
Instituto Cordoba scores more
27%

Argentinos JRS at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Argentinos JRS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
F. MoyanoArgentinos JRSArgentinos JRS · M
7.7

Match Events

15'
Braian Cuello
46'
G. Verón← T. Nuss
68'
A. Rodríguez← F. Redondo
68'
L. Sánchez← M. Torrén
68'
S. Rodríguez← F. Watson
72'
R. Bochi← B. Cuello
75'
Fernando Alarcón
78'
J. Herrera← F. González
78'
L. Heredia← J. Cabrera
80'
Sebastián Corda
84'
Gastón Verón
86'
J. Bay← S. Corda
86'
L. Mosevich← G. Graciani
90+1'
Adrian Martinez

Possession

70%Argentinos

Shots

18Argentinos

Pass accuracy

59%Argentinos

Statistics

ArgentinosInstituto
Overview
70%Possession30%
18Total Shots8
10Corners5
10Fouls15
Shots
18Total Shots8
3On Target4
9Off Target1
6Blocked3
8Inside Box5
10Outside Box3
Passing
70%Possession30%
564Total Passes239
457Accurate Passes133
81%Pass Accuracy56%
Goalkeeping
4Saves3
Discipline
10Fouls15
1Yellow Cards4
0Offsides2

Match Recap: Argentinos JRS vs Instituto Cordoba

Argentinos JRS and Instituto Cordoba drew 0-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on July 6, 2023.

Argentinos JRS controlled possession (70%) and registered 18 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio Diego Armando Maradona in Capital Federal, Ciudad de Buenos Aires.