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Independiente vs Huracan — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Independiente
Independiente
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Huracan
Huracan
L. Fernández 57'
S. Hezze 61'
8/17/2022Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 14Estadio Libertadores de América

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Independiente41%
×Draw33%
Huracan27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente
1.02
Huracan
0.76

Independiente creates 34% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 16 away

creates per match

Independiente
1.03
Huracan
0.84

allows per match

Independiente
0.69
Huracan
1.01

finishing

Independiente+0.17scores more
Huracan+0.10scores more

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente ↓

Huracan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
11%89%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Independiente or draw
73%
Independiente or Huracan
67%
Draw or Huracan
59%

Winning margin

Independiente wins by 2+
16%
Huracan wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Independiente 1+ goals
64%
Independiente 2+ goals
27%
Independiente 3+ goals
8%
Huracan 1+ goals
53%
Huracan 2+ goals
18%
Huracan 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Independiente (draw refunded)
61%
Huracan (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente at home — creates 1.03, concedes 0.69 · 15 matches

Huracan away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.01 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente attack 1.03 + Huracan defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.02

Huracan attack 0.84 + Independiente defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Independiente scores more
41%
level
33%
Huracan scores more
27%

Independiente at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Independiente will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
L. MerollaHuracanHuracan · D
7.9

Match Events

32'
R. Cabral
49'
S. Hezze
57'
L. Fernández↳ L. Romero
59'
L. Fernandez
60'
J. Laso
61'
S. Hezze↳ L. Merolla
71'
T. Pozzo← L. Romero
71'
F. Ferreyra← L. Benegas
80'
J. Gauto← R. Cabral
81'
G. Hachen← L. Fernández
84'
N. Cordero← M. Cóccaro
86'
L. Merolla
90+1'
F. Ferreyra
90+3'
P. Pizarro← I. Quílez
90+2'
G. Gudiño← B. Garré

Possession

47%Independiente

Shots

7Independiente

Pass accuracy

50%Independiente

Statistics

IndependienteHuracan
Overview
47%Possession53%
7Total Shots17
3Corners6
13Fouls9
Shots
7Total Shots17
3On Target6
1Off Target8
3Blocked3
2Inside Box9
5Outside Box8
Passing
47%Possession53%
352Total Passes403
240Accurate Passes276
68%Pass Accuracy68%
Goalkeeping
5Saves2
Discipline
13Fouls9
2Yellow Cards3
1Red Cards0
0Offsides2

Liga Profesional Argentina: Independiente 1–1 Huracan

Independiente and Huracan drew 1-1 in Liga Profesional Argentina on August 17, 2022.

Goals: L. Fernández (57'), S. Hezze (61').

Huracan controlled possession (53%) and registered 17 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio Libertadores de América in Avellaneda, Provincia de Buenos Aires.