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Independiente vs Huracan — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Independiente
Independiente
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Huracan
Huracan
L. Fernández 89'
J. Cazares 86'
A. Soñora 22'
5/7/2022Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 1st Phase - 14Estadio Libertadores de América

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Independiente41%
×Draw33%
Huracan27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente
1.02
Huracan
0.76

Independiente creates 34% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 16 away

creates per match

Independiente
1.03
Huracan
0.84

allows per match

Independiente
0.69
Huracan
1.01

finishing

Independiente+0.17scores more
Huracan+0.10scores more

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente ↓

Huracan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
11%89%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Independiente or draw
73%
Independiente or Huracan
67%
Draw or Huracan
59%

Winning margin

Independiente wins by 2+
16%
Huracan wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Independiente 1+ goals
64%
Independiente 2+ goals
27%
Independiente 3+ goals
8%
Huracan 1+ goals
53%
Huracan 2+ goals
18%
Huracan 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Independiente (draw refunded)
61%
Huracan (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente at home — creates 1.03, concedes 0.69 · 15 matches

Huracan away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.01 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente attack 1.03 + Huracan defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.02

Huracan attack 0.84 + Independiente defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Independiente scores more
41%
level
33%
Huracan scores more
27%

Independiente at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Independiente will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
F. CristaldoHuracanHuracan · M
8.6

Match Events

11'
Domingo Blanco
14'
Sergio Barreto
22'
A. Soñora
31'
Rodrigo Cabral
33'
Jonathan Galván
46'
M. Bajamich← R. Cabral
55'
L. González← D. Blanco
64'
L. Vera← J. Gauto
67'
L. Fernández← J. Romero
67'
G. Poblete← T. Pozzo
78'
A. Roa← D. Batallini
78'
J. Cazares← A. Soñora
85'
N. Cordero← J. Candia
85'
A. Curruhinca← C. Ibáñez
86'
J. Cazares↳ A. Roa
89'
L. Fernández
90'
Leandro Fernández

Possession

47%Independiente

Shots

9Independiente

Pass accuracy

50%Independiente

Statistics

IndependienteHuracan
Overview
47%Possession53%
9Total Shots13
3Corners9
10Fouls13
Shots
9Total Shots13
3On Target3
4Off Target4
2Blocked6
4Inside Box11
5Outside Box2
Passing
47%Possession53%
361Total Passes398
269Accurate Passes299
75%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
3Saves0
Discipline
10Fouls13
3Yellow Cards2
5Offsides0

Match Recap: Independiente vs Huracan

Independiente beat Huracan 3-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on May 7, 2022.

Goals: A. Soñora (22'), J. Cazares (86'), L. Fernández (89').

Huracan controlled possession (53%) and registered 13 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Libertadores de América in Avellaneda, Provincia de Buenos Aires.