Independiente 2–0 Belgrano Cordoba: Result & Stats

Independiente

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Belgrano Cordoba

M. Cauteruccio 89' (pen), 9' (pen)

4/30/2023

Liga Profesional Argentina · Round 14Estadio Libertadores de América

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Independiente42%

×Draw32%

Belgrano Cordoba27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IndependienteExpected goals in this matchBelgrano Cordoba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

0.79

Independiente

1.07

Belgrano Cordoba

0.79

Independiente creates 35% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 19 away

1.03

creates per match

0.89

0.69

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Independiente

1.03

Belgrano Cordoba

0.89

allows per match

Independiente

0.69

Belgrano Cordoba

1.11

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Independiente+0.17scores more

Belgrano Cordoba-0.10scores less

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente ↓

Belgrano Cordoba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Independiente or draw

73%

Independiente or Belgrano Cordoba

68%

Draw or Belgrano Cordoba

58%

Winning margin

Independiente wins by 2+

17%

Belgrano Cordoba wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Independiente 1+ goals

66%

Independiente 2+ goals

29%

Independiente 3+ goals

9%

Belgrano Cordoba 1+ goals

55%

Belgrano Cordoba 2+ goals

19%

Belgrano Cordoba 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Independiente (draw refunded)

61%

Belgrano Cordoba (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente at home — creates 1.03, concedes 0.69 · 15 matches

Belgrano Cordoba away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente attack 1.03 + Belgrano Cordoba defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.07

Belgrano Cordoba attack 0.89 + Independiente defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Independiente scores more

42%

level

32%

Belgrano Cordoba scores more

27%

Independiente at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Independiente will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

M. Cauteruccio

Independiente · F

8.2

Match Events

9'

M. CauteruccioPenalty

45+2'

Alex Ibacache

46'

A. Rojas← I. Ortigoza

50'

Bruno Zapelli

61'

B. Martínez← M. Cuero

61'

N. Vallejo← J. Cazares

66'

L. Diarte← A. Ibacache

66'

J. Susvielles← F. Jara

77'

G. Pereira← U. Sánchez

77'

79'

81'

86'

87'

Braian MartínezPenalty confirmed

88'

Guillermo Pereira

89'

Pablo Vegetti

89'

M. CauteruccioPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IndependienteBelgrano

Overview

42%Possession58%

12Total Shots9

3Corners3

18Fouls13

Shots

12Total Shots9

7On Target2

4Off Target4

1Blocked3

8Inside Box7

4Outside Box2

Passing

42%Possession58%

282Total Passes386

187Accurate Passes278

66%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

18Fouls13

1Yellow Cards4

3Offsides2