Belgrano Cordoba 1–1 Independiente: Result & Stats

Belgrano Cordoba

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Independiente

F. Jara 71'

S. Montiel 46'

9/14/2024

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 14Estadio Julio César Villagra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Belgrano Cordoba37%

×Draw31%

Independiente32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Belgrano CordobaExpected goals in this matchIndependiente

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

0.93

Belgrano Cordoba

1.02

Independiente

0.93

Belgrano Cordoba creates 10% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 18 away

0.98

creates per match

0.89

0.97

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Belgrano Cordoba

0.98

Independiente

0.89

allows per match

Belgrano Cordoba

0.97

Independiente

1.06

+0.02on par

finishing

-0.22scores less than expected

finishing

Belgrano Cordoba+0.02on par

Independiente-0.22scores less

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belgrano Cordoba ↓

Independiente →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Belgrano Cordoba or draw

68%

Belgrano Cordoba or Independiente

69%

Draw or Independiente

63%

Winning margin

Belgrano Cordoba wins by 2+

14%

Independiente wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Belgrano Cordoba 1+ goals

64%

Belgrano Cordoba 2+ goals

27%

Belgrano Cordoba 3+ goals

8%

Independiente 1+ goals

61%

Independiente 2+ goals

24%

Independiente 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Belgrano Cordoba (draw refunded)

53%

Independiente (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belgrano Cordoba at home — creates 0.98, concedes 0.97 · 17 matches

Independiente away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belgrano Cordoba attack 0.98 + Independiente defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.02

Independiente attack 0.89 + Belgrano Cordoba defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Belgrano Cordoba scores more

37%

level

31%

Independiente scores more

32%

Belgrano Cordoba at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Belgrano Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

44

S. Montiel

Independiente · F

8.9

Match Events

10'

Facundo Quignon

26'

Gabriel Compagnucci

32'

L. Millán← L. González

46'

F. Jara← J. Velazquez

46'

F. Mancuello← D. Tarzia

46'

55'

58'

67'

71'

F. Jara↳ N. Fernández

72'

G. Heredia← A. Leguizamón

75'

76'

76'

78'

83'

M. Pellegrino← K. Lomónaco

84'

Mariano Troilo

86'

Nicolás Fernández

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BelgranoIndependiente

Overview

52%Possession48%

15Total Shots11

1.47Expected Goals (xG)0.98

2Corners2

16Fouls10

Shots

15Total Shots11

6On Target6

5Off Target3

4Blocked2

7Inside Box5

8Outside Box6

Passing

52%Possession48%

411Total Passes396

320Accurate Passes305

78%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

5Saves5

1.78Goals Prevented1.78

Discipline

16Fouls10

6Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1

Match Recap: Belgrano Cordoba vs Independiente

Belgrano Cordoba and Independiente drew 1-1 in Liga Profesional Argentina on September 14, 2024.

Goals: S. Montiel (46'), F. Jara (71').

Belgrano Cordoba controlled possession (52%) and registered 15 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio Julio César Villagra in Ciudad de Córdoba, Provincia de Córdoba.

Belgrano Cordoba vs Independiente — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Belgrano Cordoba vs Independiente