Independiente 2–1 Belgrano Cordoba: Result & Stats

Independiente

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Belgrano Cordoba

B. Romero 62'

E. Brítez 45'

L. Sequeira 32' (pen)

11/11/2018

Liga Profesional Argentina · Round 12Libertadores de America

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Independiente42%

×Draw32%

Belgrano Cordoba27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IndependienteExpected goals in this matchBelgrano Cordoba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

0.79

Independiente

1.07

Belgrano Cordoba

0.79

Independiente creates 35% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 19 away

1.03

creates per match

0.89

0.69

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Independiente

1.03

Belgrano Cordoba

0.89

allows per match

Independiente

0.69

Belgrano Cordoba

1.11

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Independiente+0.17scores more

Belgrano Cordoba-0.10scores less

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente ↓

Belgrano Cordoba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Independiente or draw

73%

Independiente or Belgrano Cordoba

68%

Draw or Belgrano Cordoba

58%

Winning margin

Independiente wins by 2+

17%

Belgrano Cordoba wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Independiente 1+ goals

66%

Independiente 2+ goals

29%

Independiente 3+ goals

9%

Belgrano Cordoba 1+ goals

55%

Belgrano Cordoba 2+ goals

19%

Belgrano Cordoba 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Independiente (draw refunded)

61%

Belgrano Cordoba (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente at home — creates 1.03, concedes 0.69 · 15 matches

Belgrano Cordoba away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente attack 1.03 + Belgrano Cordoba defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.07

Belgrano Cordoba attack 0.89 + Independiente defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Independiente scores more

42%

level

32%

Belgrano Cordoba scores more

27%

Independiente at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Independiente will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

N. Domingo

Independiente · M

7.8

Match Events

32'

L. SequeiraPenalty

34'

39'

45'

53'

54'

B. Romero← J. Sánchez Miño

55'

Emanuel Brítez

62'

B. Romero↳ F. Bustos

67'

A. Balboa← J. Brunetta

67'

J. Aguirre← G. Alanís

71'

G. Burdisso← F. Gaibor

71'

77'

79'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IndependienteBelgrano

Overview

69%Possession31%

17Total Shots11

10Corners4

6Fouls16

Shots

17Total Shots11

7On Target2

7Off Target7

3Blocked2

9Inside Box5

8Outside Box6

Passing

69%Possession31%

488Total Passes211

431Accurate Passes146

88%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

6Fouls16

2Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards1

3Offsides2

Match Recap: Independiente vs Belgrano Cordoba

Independiente beat Belgrano Cordoba 2-1 in Liga Profesional Argentina on November 11, 2018.

Goals: L. Sequeira (32' pen), E. Brítez (45'), B. Romero (62').

Independiente controlled possession (69%) and registered 17 shots to 11.

The match was played at Libertadores de America in Buenos Aires.

Independiente vs Belgrano Cordoba — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Independiente vs Belgrano Cordoba