Independiente Medellin 1–1 Envigado: Result & Stats

Independiente Medellin

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Envigado

D. Moreno 38'

J. Garces 36' (pen)

11/11/2025

Copa Colombia · Semi-finalsEstadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Independiente Medellin47%

×Draw27%

Envigado26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente MedellinExpected goals in this matchEnvigado

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.97

Independiente Medellin

1.42

Envigado

0.97

Independiente Medellin creates 46% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 16 away

1.39

creates per match

0.94

1.00

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Independiente Medellin

1.39

Envigado

0.94

allows per match

Independiente Medellin

1.00

Envigado

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independiente Medellin+0.00on par

Envigado+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Medellin ↓

Envigado →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Independiente Medellin or draw

74%

Independiente Medellin or Envigado

73%

Draw or Envigado

53%

Winning margin

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+

23%

Envigado wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals

76%

Independiente Medellin 2+ goals

41%

Independiente Medellin 3+ goals

17%

Envigado 1+ goals

62%

Envigado 2+ goals

25%

Envigado 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)

65%

Envigado (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Medellin at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.00 · 23 matches

Envigado away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Medellin attack 1.39 + Envigado defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.42

Envigado attack 0.94 + Independiente Medellin defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Independiente Medellin scores more

47%

level

27%

Envigado scores more

26%

Independiente Medellin at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Independiente Medellin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'

J. GarcesPenalty

38'

D. Moreno

45+4'

F. Fydriszewski

45+4'

J. Quejada

46'

J. Alvarado← A. Serna

67'

S. Norena

72'

M. Garcia← F. Fydriszewski

72'

R. C. Espana Alvarez← J. Garces

81'

J. Arizala

86'

T. Soto← D. A. Valencia Mosquera

86'

J. Aristizabal← J. Hinestroza

87'

F. Chaverra

88'

K. Mantilla← L. Sandoval

88'

J. Arizala← F. Chaverra

90'

J. Palacio

90+1'

D. Dawson← J. Palacio

90+1'

M. Marulanda← F. Berrio

Independiente

Envigado

1

27

28

5

15

11

⚽

▼

Garces

6

▼

Palacio

14

▼

Hinestroz

31

▼

Berrio

34

Diaz

26

▼

29

26

33

23

2

19

▼

Fydriszew

31

⚽

Moreno

14

Perlaza

80

▼

Serna

13

▼

Chaverra

9

▼

Sandoval

Manager: Alejandro Restrepo Mazo

46'▲J. Alvarado←▼A. Serna

72'▲M. Garcia←▼F. Fydriszewski

88'▲K. Mantilla←▼L. Sandoval

88'▲J. Arizala←▼F. Chaverra

Independiente Medellin substitutes

25Chaux3Palacios4Mantilla71Arizala39Mancilla15Alvarado8Garcia11Valencia18Maturana

Manager: Andrés Felipe Orozco Vásquez

72'▲R. C. Espana Alvarez←▼J. Garces

86'▲T. Soto←▼D. A. Valencia Mosquera

86'▲J. Aristizabal←▼J. Hinestroza

90+1'▲D. Dawson←▼J. Palacio

90+1'▲M. Marulanda←▼F. Berrio

Envigado substitutes

12Villa3Holguin4Uribe13Soto18Hurtado29Zapata80Aristizabal8Alvarez7Dawson38Marulanda

Match Recap: Independiente Medellin vs Envigado

Independiente Medellin and Envigado drew 1-1 in Copa Colombia on November 11, 2025.

Goals: J. Garces (36' pen), D. Moreno (38').

The match was played at Estadio Atanasio Girardot.

Independiente Medellin vs Envigado — Copa Colombia 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Independiente Medellin vs Envigado