Envigado 0–1 Independiente Medellin: Result & Stats

Envigado

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Independiente Medellin

D. Moreno 85'

11/3/2025

Copa Colombia · Semi-finalsEstadio Polideportivo Sur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Envigado38%

×Draw28%

Independiente Medellin34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EnvigadoExpected goals in this matchIndependiente Medellin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.16

Envigado

1.23

Independiente Medellin

1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 23 away

1.41

creates per match

1.61

0.71

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Envigado

1.41

Independiente Medellin

1.61

allows per match

Envigado

0.71

Independiente Medellin

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Envigado+0.00on par

Independiente Medellin+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Envigado ↓

Independiente Medellin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Envigado or draw

66%

Envigado or Independiente Medellin

72%

Draw or Independiente Medellin

62%

Winning margin

Envigado wins by 2+

16%

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Envigado 1+ goals

71%

Envigado 2+ goals

35%

Envigado 3+ goals

13%

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals

69%

Independiente Medellin 2+ goals

32%

Independiente Medellin 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Envigado (draw refunded)

52%

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Envigado at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.71 · 17 matches

Independiente Medellin away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.04 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Envigado attack 1.41 + Independiente Medellin defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.23

Independiente Medellin attack 1.61 + Envigado defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Envigado scores more

38%

level

28%

Independiente Medellin scores more

34%

Envigado at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Envigado will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

38'

45+1'

46'

46'

J. Aristizabal← T. Soto

51'

D. Palacios

64'

D. Moreno← L. Sandoval

64'

J. Alvarado← B. Perlaza

64'

J. Valencia← A. Serna

77'

J. Arizala← F. Chaverra

81'

82'

M. Garcia← L. Berrio

85'

D. Moreno

90'

J. J. Gamboa Valencia

90+1'

W. Aguerre

90+2'

E. Lopez

90+2'

M. Garcia

90+2'

90+5'

J. Hinestroza← E. Lopez

90+5'

D. Dawson← L. Diaz

Envigado

Independiente

1

Montoya

27

Quejada

4

▼

Uribe

28

Valencia

2

Palacios

13

▼

Soto

6

Palacio

21

▼

Lopez

19

Berrio

9

▼

11

29

26

33

23

2

19

80

▼

Serna

14

▼

Perlaza

7

▼

Berrio

13

▼

Chaverra

9

▼

Sandoval

Manager: Andrés Felipe Orozco Vásquez

64'▲D. Moreno←▼L. Sandoval

64'▲J. Alvarado←▼B. Perlaza

64'▲J. Valencia←▼A. Serna

77'▲J. Arizala←▼F. Chaverra

82'▲M. Garcia←▼L. Berrio

Envigado substitutes

25Chaux24Ortiz4Mantilla71Arizala31Moreno15Alvarado8Garcia11Valencia20Segura

Manager: Alejandro Restrepo Mazo

46'▲S. Cuervo←▼N. Uribe

46'▲J. Aristizabal←▼T. Soto

90+5'▲J. Hinestroza←▼E. Lopez

90+5'▲D. Dawson←▼L. Diaz

Independiente Medellin substitutes

12Villa15Cuervo3Holguin68Aristizabal18Hurtado14Hinestroza26Mosquera8Alvarez7Dawson

Copa Colombia: Envigado 0–1 Independiente Medellin

Independiente Medellin beat Envigado 1-0 in Copa Colombia on November 3, 2025.

Goals: D. Moreno (85').

The match was played at Estadio Polideportivo Sur in Envigado.

Envigado vs Independiente Medellin — Copa Colombia 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Copa Colombia: Envigado 0–1 Independiente Medellin