Independiente Medellin 3–4 Envigado: Result & Stats

Independiente Medellin

FT

3 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Envigado

F. Fydriszewski 89' (pen), 84' (pen)

J. Ortiz 45'

D. Arcila 85', 74' (pen), 25' (pen)

D. Palacios 11'

7/24/2025

Primera A · Clausura - 3Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 149+ matches

Independiente Medellin54%

×Draw26%

Envigado20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente MedellinExpected goals in this matchEnvigado

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.78

Independiente Medellin

1.48

Envigado

0.78

Independiente Medellin creates 90% more chances

Season form · 181 home / 149 away

1.56

creates per match

0.74

0.82

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Independiente Medellin

1.56

Envigado

0.74

allows per match

Independiente Medellin

0.82

Envigado

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independiente Medellin+0.00on par

Envigado+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Medellin ↓

Envigado →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Independiente Medellin or draw

80%

Independiente Medellin or Envigado

74%

Draw or Envigado

46%

Winning margin

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+

28%

Envigado wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals

77%

Independiente Medellin 2+ goals

43%

Independiente Medellin 3+ goals

19%

Envigado 1+ goals

54%

Envigado 2+ goals

18%

Envigado 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)

73%

Envigado (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Medellin at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.82 · 181 matches

Envigado away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.39 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Medellin attack 1.56 + Envigado defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.48

Envigado attack 0.74 + Independiente Medellin defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Independiente Medellin scores more

54%

level

26%

Envigado scores more

20%

Independiente Medellin at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Independiente Medellin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

D. Arcila

Envigado · M

10.0

Match Events

6'

Leandro Angulo

11'

D. Palacios↳ D. Arcila

18'

Jhon Gamboa

25'

D. ArcilaPenalty

38'

Daniel Londoño

38'

Daniel LondoñoCard upgrade

42'

Luis Sandoval

43'

Frey BerrioCard upgrade

44'

Frey Berrio

45'

J. Ortiz↳ L. Chaverra

46'

L. Berrio← M. Garcia

46'

L. Gomez← J. Garces

54'

F. Chaverra← Y. Rodallega

54'

B. Leon← L. Sandoval

63'

Brayan Léon Muñiz

69'

Léider BerríoCard upgrade

70'

Léider Berrío

71'

Washington Aguerre

74'

D. ArcilaPenalty

75'

B. Agron← L. Diaz

76'

J. Palacios← J. Ortiz

76'

J. Holguin← B. Murillo

76'

J. Palacio← L. Angulo

80'

Julián Palacios

82'

Andrés Tovar

84'

F. FydriszewskiPenalty

85'

D. Arcila

89'

F. FydriszewskiPenalty

89'

J. Valencia← J. Alvarado

90'

M. Marulanda← D. Arcila

90+6'

Bleiner Agrón

90+7'

Brayan Léon Muñiz

90+7'

Brayan Léon Muñiz

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IndependienteEnvigado

Overview

76%Possession24%

25Total Shots10

12Corners3

11Fouls17

Shots

25Total Shots10

7On Target5

13Off Target5

5Blocked0

15Inside Box5

10Outside Box5

Passing

76%Possession24%

414Total Passes143

367Accurate Passes92

89%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls17

4Yellow Cards5

3Red Cards1