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Independiente Medellin vs Envigado — Primera A 2018

Independiente Medellin
Independiente Medellin
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Envigado
Envigado
A. Cadavid 46', 32' (pen)
C. Ordóñez 74'
6/10/2022Primera APrimera A · Apertura - Quadrangular - 4Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 149+ matches

Independiente Medellin54%
×Draw26%
Envigado20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente Medellin
1.48
Envigado
0.78

Independiente Medellin creates 90% more chances

Season form · 181 home / 149 away

creates per match

Independiente Medellin
1.56
Envigado
0.74

allows per match

Independiente Medellin
0.82
Envigado
1.39

finishing

Independiente Medellin+0.00on par
Envigado+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Medellin ↓

Envigado →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Independiente Medellin or draw
80%
Independiente Medellin or Envigado
74%
Draw or Envigado
46%

Winning margin

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+
28%
Envigado wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals
77%
Independiente Medellin 2+ goals
43%
Independiente Medellin 3+ goals
19%
Envigado 1+ goals
54%
Envigado 2+ goals
18%
Envigado 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)
73%
Envigado (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Medellin at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.82 · 181 matches

Envigado away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.39 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Medellin attack 1.56 + Envigado defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.48

Envigado attack 0.74 + Independiente Medellin defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Independiente Medellin scores more
54%
level
26%
Envigado scores more
20%

Independiente Medellin at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Independiente Medellin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
A. CadavidIndependiente MedellinIndependiente Medellin · D
8.2

Match Events

31'
Vladimir HernándezPenalty awarded
31'
Francisco Báez
32'
A. CadavidPenalty
45+2'
Javier Méndez
45+1'
Jaen Pineda
46'
J. Hernández← D. Moreno
46'
A. Cadavid
62'
Felipe PardoGoal cancelled
63'
L. Díaz← W. Guisao
70'
J. Tegue← H. Mosquera
72'
B. Castrillón← F. Pardo
74'
C. Ordóñez↳ J. Hernández
79'
J. Díaz← A. Arregui
79'
D. Arcila← L. Díaz
85'
J. Hernández← V. Hernández
90+3'
Carlos Ordóñez

Possession

49%Independiente

Shots

16Independiente

Pass accuracy

51%Independiente

Statistics

IndependienteEnvigado
Overview
49%Possession51%
16Total Shots7
2Corners4
5Fouls10
Shots
16Total Shots7
7On Target2
8Off Target5
1Blocked0
7Inside Box5
9Outside Box2
Passing
49%Possession51%
366Total Passes391
293Accurate Passes297
80%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
1Saves5
Discipline
5Fouls10
2Yellow Cards2
3Offsides1

Primera A: Independiente Medellin 2–1 Envigado

Independiente Medellin beat Envigado 2-1 in Primera A on June 10, 2022.

Goals: A. Cadavid (32' pen, 46'), C. Ordóñez (74').

Envigado controlled possession (51%) and registered 7 shots to 16.

The match was played at Estadio Atanasio Girardot in Medellín.