Independiente Medellin 0–0 Envigado: Result & Stats

Independiente Medellin

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Envigado

10/9/2021

Primera A · Clausura - 13Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 149+ matches

Independiente Medellin54%

×Draw26%

Envigado20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente MedellinExpected goals in this matchEnvigado

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.78

Independiente Medellin

1.48

Envigado

0.78

Independiente Medellin creates 90% more chances

Season form · 181 home / 149 away

1.56

creates per match

0.74

0.82

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Independiente Medellin

1.56

Envigado

0.74

allows per match

Independiente Medellin

0.82

Envigado

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independiente Medellin+0.00on par

Envigado+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Medellin ↓

Envigado →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Independiente Medellin or draw

80%

Independiente Medellin or Envigado

74%

Draw or Envigado

46%

Winning margin

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+

28%

Envigado wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals

77%

Independiente Medellin 2+ goals

43%

Independiente Medellin 3+ goals

19%

Envigado 1+ goals

54%

Envigado 2+ goals

18%

Envigado 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)

73%

Envigado (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Medellin at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.82 · 181 matches

Envigado away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.39 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Medellin attack 1.56 + Envigado defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.48

Envigado attack 0.74 + Independiente Medellin defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Independiente Medellin scores more

54%

level

26%

Envigado scores more

20%

Independiente Medellin at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Independiente Medellin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

A. Arregui

Independiente Medellin · D

7.7

Match Events

27'

J. Zapata

46'

L. Castro← K. Londoño

60'

A. Arregui

61'

D. Londono

67'

J. Pineda← J. Reina

73'

A. Vuletich← D. Cambindo

75'

C. Andrade← J. Suárez

81'

E. López← D. Moreno

85'

J. Hernandez

87'

J. Ramos← Y. Asprilla

90+3'

M. Ramos

90+4'

J. Mosquera

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IndependienteEnvigado

Overview

56%Possession44%

18Total Shots12

5Corners0

11Fouls14

Shots

18Total Shots12

2On Target0

12Off Target8

4Blocked4

9Inside Box0

9Outside Box12

Passing

56%Possession44%

449Total Passes374

368Accurate Passes296

82%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls14

1Yellow Cards4

0Offsides1