Independiente Medellin 3–1 Cortulua: Result & Stats

Independiente Medellin

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Cortulua

2/8/2022

Primera A · Apertura - 5Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Independiente Medellin56%

×Draw25%

Cortulua19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente MedellinExpected goals in this matchCortulua

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

0.80

Independiente Medellin

1.60

Cortulua

0.80

Independiente Medellin creates 100% more chances

Season form · 183 home / 36 away

1.57

creates per match

0.78

0.82

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Independiente Medellin

1.57

Cortulua

0.78

allows per match

Independiente Medellin

0.82

Cortulua

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independiente Medellin+0.00on par

Cortulua+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente Medellin ↓

Cortulua →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Independiente Medellin or draw

81%

Independiente Medellin or Cortulua

75%

Draw or Cortulua

44%

Winning margin

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+

30%

Cortulua wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals

80%

Independiente Medellin 2+ goals

47%

Independiente Medellin 3+ goals

22%

Cortulua 1+ goals

55%

Cortulua 2+ goals

19%

Cortulua 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)

75%

Cortulua (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente Medellin at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.82 · 183 matches

Cortulua away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.64 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente Medellin attack 1.57 + Cortulua defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.60

Cortulua attack 0.78 + Independiente Medellin defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Independiente Medellin scores more

56%

level

25%

Cortulua scores more

19%

Independiente Medellin at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Independiente Medellin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff