Cortulua 1–0 Independiente Medellin: Result & Stats

Cortulua

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Independiente Medellin

J. Caicedo 53'

7/30/2022

Primera A · Clausura - 5Estadio Doce de Octubre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Cortulua33%

×Draw29%

Independiente Medellin38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CortuluaExpected goals in this matchIndependiente Medellin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.15

Cortulua

1.04

Independiente Medellin

1.15

Independiente Medellin creates 11% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 183 away

0.74

creates per match

1.14

1.15

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Cortulua

0.74

Independiente Medellin

1.14

allows per match

Cortulua

1.15

Independiente Medellin

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cortulua+0.00on par

Independiente Medellin+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cortulua ↓

Independiente Medellin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Cortulua or draw

62%

Cortulua or Independiente Medellin

71%

Draw or Independiente Medellin

67%

Winning margin

Cortulua wins by 2+

13%

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Cortulua 1+ goals

65%

Cortulua 2+ goals

28%

Cortulua 3+ goals

9%

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals

68%

Independiente Medellin 2+ goals

32%

Independiente Medellin 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Cortulua (draw refunded)

46%

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cortulua at home — creates 0.74, concedes 1.15 · 34 matches

Independiente Medellin away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.33 · 183 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cortulua attack 0.74 + Independiente Medellin defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.04

Independiente Medellin attack 1.14 + Cortulua defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Cortulua scores more

33%

level

29%

Independiente Medellin scores more

38%

Independiente Medellin at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Independiente Medellin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

S. Valencia

Cortulua · D

7.7

Match Events

45+1'

Stiven Valencia

46'

J. Pineda← V. Hernández

53'

J. Caicedo↳ J. Bocanegra

61'

J. Millán← J. Caicedo

62'

J. Colorado← F. Mercado

62'

J. Méndez← A. Arregui

68'

L. Pons← D. Cambindo

69'

M. Monsalve← C. Marrugo

78'

Alexis Manyoma

82'

J. Mejia← K. Valencia

82'

J. Lobo← J. Bocanegra

84'

Jean Colorado

84'

Javier Méndez

88'

J. Hernández← F. Pardo

90'

L. Sinisterra← A. Castillo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CortuluaIndependiente

Overview

43%Possession57%

15Total Shots14

6Corners7

17Fouls6

Shots

15Total Shots14

4On Target2

8Off Target8

3Blocked4

8Inside Box11

7Outside Box3

Passing

43%Possession57%

311Total Passes424

240Accurate Passes339

77%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls6

3Yellow Cards1

0Offsides5

Match Recap: Cortulua vs Independiente Medellin

Cortulua beat Independiente Medellin 1-0 in Primera A on July 30, 2022.

Goals: J. Caicedo (53').

Independiente Medellin controlled possession (57%) and registered 14 shots to 15.

The match was played at Estadio Doce de Octubre in Tuluá.

Cortulua vs Independiente Medellin — Primera A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Cortulua vs Independiente Medellin