Cortulua 2–2 Independiente Medellin: Result & Stats

Cortulua

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Independiente Medellin

2/22/2017

Primera A · Apertura - 5Olímpico Pascual Guerrero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Cortulua34%

×Draw28%

Independiente Medellin38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CortuluaExpected goals in this matchIndependiente Medellin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.21

Cortulua

1.14

Independiente Medellin

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 185 away

0.92

creates per match

1.16

1.26

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Cortulua

0.92

Independiente Medellin

1.16

allows per match

Cortulua

1.26

Independiente Medellin

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cortulua+0.00on par

Independiente Medellin+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cortulua ↓

Independiente Medellin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Cortulua or draw

62%

Cortulua or Independiente Medellin

72%

Draw or Independiente Medellin

66%

Winning margin

Cortulua wins by 2+

14%

Independiente Medellin wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Cortulua 1+ goals

68%

Cortulua 2+ goals

32%

Cortulua 3+ goals

11%

Independiente Medellin 1+ goals

70%

Independiente Medellin 2+ goals

34%

Independiente Medellin 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Cortulua (draw refunded)

48%

Independiente Medellin (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cortulua at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.26 · 38 matches

Independiente Medellin away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.35 · 185 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cortulua attack 0.92 + Independiente Medellin defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.14

Independiente Medellin attack 1.16 + Cortulua defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Cortulua scores more

34%

level

28%

Independiente Medellin scores more

38%

Independiente Medellin at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Independiente Medellin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff