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Independiente del Valle vs Mushuc Runa SC — Liga Pro 2026

Independiente del Valle
Independiente del Valle
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Mushuc Runa SC
Mushuc Runa SC
5/23/2025Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 14Estadio Banco Guayaquil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Independiente del Valle59%
×Draw23%
Mushuc Runa SC18%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente del Valle
1.80
Mushuc Runa SC
0.87

Independiente del Valle creates 107% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 117 away

creates per match

Independiente del Valle
1.77
Mushuc Runa SC
0.95

allows per match

Independiente del Valle
0.79
Mushuc Runa SC
1.83

finishing

Independiente del Valle+0.00on par
Mushuc Runa SC+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente del Valle ↓

Mushuc Runa SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Independiente del Valle or draw
82%
Independiente del Valle or Mushuc Runa SC
77%
Draw or Mushuc Runa SC
41%

Winning margin

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+
34%
Mushuc Runa SC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals
83%
Independiente del Valle 2+ goals
54%
Independiente del Valle 3+ goals
27%
Mushuc Runa SC 1+ goals
58%
Mushuc Runa SC 2+ goals
22%
Mushuc Runa SC 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)
77%
Mushuc Runa SC (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente del Valle at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.79 · 133 matches

Mushuc Runa SC away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.83 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente del Valle attack 1.77 + Mushuc Runa SC defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.80

Mushuc Runa SC attack 0.95 + Independiente del Valle defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Independiente del Valle scores more
59%
level
23%
Mushuc Runa SC scores more
18%

Independiente del Valle at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Independiente del Valle vs Mushuc Runa SC

Independiente del Valle beat Mushuc Runa SC 2-1 in Liga Pro on May 23, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Banco Guayaquil in Quito.