Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Independiente del Valle vs Mushuc Runa SC — Copa Ecuador 2022

Independiente del Valle
Independiente del Valle
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Mushuc Runa SC
Mushuc Runa SC
J. Ayovi 50'
M. Alonso 35'
11/1/2022Copa EcuadorCopa Ecuador · Quadrangular Semi-finals - 2Estadio Banco Guayaquil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Independiente del Valle49%
×Draw28%
Mushuc Runa SC23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente del Valle
1.36
Mushuc Runa SC
0.83

Independiente del Valle creates 64% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

creates per match

Independiente del Valle
1.50
Mushuc Runa SC
0.67

allows per match

Independiente del Valle
1.00
Mushuc Runa SC
1.22

finishing

Independiente del Valle+0.00on par
Mushuc Runa SC+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente del Valle ↓

Mushuc Runa SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Independiente del Valle or draw
77%
Independiente del Valle or Mushuc Runa SC
72%
Draw or Mushuc Runa SC
51%

Winning margin

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+
24%
Mushuc Runa SC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals
74%
Independiente del Valle 2+ goals
39%
Independiente del Valle 3+ goals
16%
Mushuc Runa SC 1+ goals
56%
Mushuc Runa SC 2+ goals
20%
Mushuc Runa SC 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)
68%
Mushuc Runa SC (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente del Valle at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Mushuc Runa SC away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente del Valle attack 1.50 + Mushuc Runa SC defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.36

Mushuc Runa SC attack 0.67 + Independiente del Valle defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Independiente del Valle scores more
49%
level
28%
Mushuc Runa SC scores more
23%

Independiente del Valle at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'
33'
35'
M. Alonso
36'
41'
44'
45+1'
50'
J. Ayovi
63'
66'
72'
80'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Independiente del Valle vs Mushuc Runa SC

Independiente del Valle and Mushuc Runa SC drew 1-1 in Copa Ecuador on November 1, 2022.

Goals: M. Alonso (35'), J. Ayovi (50').

The match was played at Estadio Banco Guayaquil in Sangolquí.