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Independiente del Valle vs Guayaquil City FC — Liga Pro 2026

Independiente del Valle
Independiente del Valle
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Guayaquil City FC
Guayaquil City FC
2/22/2026Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 1Estadio Banco Guayaquil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Independiente del Valle60%
×Draw23%
Guayaquil City FC16%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente del Valle
1.75
Guayaquil City FC
0.78

Independiente del Valle creates 124% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 95 away

creates per match

Independiente del Valle
1.77
Guayaquil City FC
0.77

allows per match

Independiente del Valle
0.79
Guayaquil City FC
1.74

finishing

Independiente del Valle+0.00on par
Guayaquil City FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente del Valle ↓

Guayaquil City FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Independiente del Valle or draw
84%
Independiente del Valle or Guayaquil City FC
77%
Draw or Guayaquil City FC
40%

Winning margin

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+
34%
Guayaquil City FC wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals
83%
Independiente del Valle 2+ goals
52%
Independiente del Valle 3+ goals
25%
Guayaquil City FC 1+ goals
54%
Guayaquil City FC 2+ goals
18%
Guayaquil City FC 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)
79%
Guayaquil City FC (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente del Valle at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.79 · 133 matches

Guayaquil City FC away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.74 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente del Valle attack 1.77 + Guayaquil City FC defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.75

Guayaquil City FC attack 0.77 + Independiente del Valle defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Independiente del Valle scores more
60%
level
23%
Guayaquil City FC scores more
16%

Independiente del Valle at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro: Independiente del Valle 2–0 Guayaquil City FC

Independiente del Valle beat Guayaquil City FC 2-0 in Liga Pro on February 22, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Banco Guayaquil in Quito.