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Guayaquil City FC vs Independiente del Valle — Liga Pro 2026

Guayaquil City FC
Guayaquil City FC
FT
2 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Independiente del Valle
Independiente del Valle
5/31/2026Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 16Estadio Christian Benitez Betancourt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Guayaquil City FC34%
×Draw27%
Independiente del Valle39%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guayaquil City FC
1.21
Independiente del Valle
1.33

Independiente del Valle creates 10% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 133 away

creates per match

Guayaquil City FC
1.26
Independiente del Valle
1.56

allows per match

Guayaquil City FC
1.09
Independiente del Valle
1.17

finishing

Guayaquil City FC+0.00on par
Independiente del Valle+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guayaquil City FC ↓

Independiente del Valle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Guayaquil City FC or draw
61%
Guayaquil City FC or Independiente del Valle
73%
Draw or Independiente del Valle
66%

Winning margin

Guayaquil City FC wins by 2+
14%
Independiente del Valle wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Guayaquil City FC 1+ goals
70%
Guayaquil City FC 2+ goals
34%
Guayaquil City FC 3+ goals
12%
Independiente del Valle 1+ goals
74%
Independiente del Valle 2+ goals
38%
Independiente del Valle 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Guayaquil City FC (draw refunded)
46%
Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guayaquil City FC at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.09 · 94 matches

Independiente del Valle away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.17 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guayaquil City FC attack 1.26 + Independiente del Valle defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.21

Independiente del Valle attack 1.56 + Guayaquil City FC defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Guayaquil City FC scores more
34%
level
27%
Independiente del Valle scores more
39%

Independiente del Valle at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Guayaquil City FC vs Independiente del Valle

Independiente del Valle beat Guayaquil City FC 4-2 in Liga Pro on May 31, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Christian Benitez Betancourt in Guayaquil.