Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Independiente del Valle vs Guayaquil City FC — Liga Pro 2026

Independiente del Valle
Independiente del Valle
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Guayaquil City FC
Guayaquil City FC
M. Moreno 80'
C. Pellerano 63'
M. Hoyos 51'
J. Alcívar 11'
5/14/2023Liga ProLiga Pro · 1st Round - 10Estadio Banco Guayaquil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Independiente del Valle61%
×Draw23%
Guayaquil City FC16%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente del Valle
1.77
Guayaquil City FC
0.78

Independiente del Valle creates 127% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 95 away

creates per match

Independiente del Valle
1.81
Guayaquil City FC
0.77

allows per match

Independiente del Valle
0.79
Guayaquil City FC
1.74

finishing

Independiente del Valle+0.00on par
Guayaquil City FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente del Valle ↓

Guayaquil City FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Independiente del Valle or draw
84%
Independiente del Valle or Guayaquil City FC
77%
Draw or Guayaquil City FC
39%

Winning margin

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+
35%
Guayaquil City FC wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals
83%
Independiente del Valle 2+ goals
53%
Independiente del Valle 3+ goals
26%
Guayaquil City FC 1+ goals
54%
Guayaquil City FC 2+ goals
18%
Guayaquil City FC 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)
79%
Guayaquil City FC (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente del Valle at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.79 · 134 matches

Guayaquil City FC away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.74 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente del Valle attack 1.81 + Guayaquil City FC defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.77

Guayaquil City FC attack 0.77 + Independiente del Valle defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Independiente del Valle scores more
61%
level
23%
Guayaquil City FC scores more
16%

Independiente del Valle at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
J. Alcívar↳ M. Hoyos
20'
Cristian Pellerano
45+2'
Matías Fernández
45+2'
Mauricio Alonso
51'
M. Hoyos↳ M. Fernández
63'
C. Pellerano↳ J. Alcívar
66'
Renato César
67'
N. Previtali← C. Pellerano
67'
K. Rodríguez← G. Cortez
67'
P. Mercado← M. Hoyos
68'
K. Sambonino← Klebinho
68'
J. Ayovi← M. Alonso
76'
E. Cabezas← M. Carbajal
80'
M. Moreno↳ J. Alcívar
82'
E. Espinoza← R. Arias
82'
J. Narváez← J. Humanante
82'
S. Estacio← R. César
89'
C. Sánchez← M. Fernández
90+2'
Kevin Rodriguez

Shots

19Independiente

Statistics

IndependienteGuayaquil
Overview
19Total Shots4
6Corners3
8Fouls10
Shots
19Total Shots4
7On Target1
9Off Target2
3Blocked1
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
8Fouls10
3Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0

Match Recap: Independiente del Valle vs Guayaquil City FC

Independiente del Valle beat Guayaquil City FC 4-0 in Liga Pro on May 14, 2023.

Goals: J. Alcívar (11'), M. Hoyos (51'), C. Pellerano (63'), M. Moreno (80').

The match was played at Estadio Banco Guayaquil in Sangolquí.