Independiente del Valle 3–1 Cuniburo

Independiente del Valle

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Cuniburo

9/13/2025

Liga Pro · Round 28Estadio Banco Guayaquil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Independiente del Valle57%

×Draw23%

Cuniburo19%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente del ValleExpected goals in this matchCuniburo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

0.90

Independiente del Valle

1.75

Cuniburo

0.90

Independiente del Valle creates 94% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 18 away

1.77

creates per match

1.00

0.79

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Independiente del Valle

1.77

Cuniburo

1.00

allows per match

Independiente del Valle

0.79

Cuniburo

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independiente del Valle+0.00on par

Cuniburo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente del Valle ↓

Cuniburo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Independiente del Valle or draw

81%

Independiente del Valle or Cuniburo

77%

Draw or Cuniburo

43%

Winning margin

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+

32%

Cuniburo wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals

83%

Independiente del Valle 2+ goals

52%

Independiente del Valle 3+ goals

25%

Cuniburo 1+ goals

59%

Cuniburo 2+ goals

23%

Cuniburo 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)

75%

Cuniburo (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente del Valle at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.79 · 133 matches

Cuniburo away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.72 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente del Valle attack 1.77 + Cuniburo defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.75

Cuniburo attack 1.00 + Independiente del Valle defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Independiente del Valle scores more

57%

level

23%

Cuniburo scores more

19%

Independiente del Valle at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff