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Cuniburo vs Independiente del Valle — Liga Pro 2026

Cuniburo
Cuniburo
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Independiente del Valle
Independiente del Valle
5/18/2025Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 13Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Cuniburo33%
×Draw27%
Independiente del Valle40%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cuniburo
1.19
Independiente del Valle
1.33

Independiente del Valle creates 12% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 133 away

creates per match

Cuniburo
1.22
Independiente del Valle
1.56

allows per match

Cuniburo
1.11
Independiente del Valle
1.17

finishing

Cuniburo+0.00on par
Independiente del Valle+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cuniburo ↓

Independiente del Valle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cuniburo or draw
60%
Cuniburo or Independiente del Valle
73%
Draw or Independiente del Valle
67%

Winning margin

Cuniburo wins by 2+
14%
Independiente del Valle wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Cuniburo 1+ goals
70%
Cuniburo 2+ goals
33%
Cuniburo 3+ goals
12%
Independiente del Valle 1+ goals
74%
Independiente del Valle 2+ goals
38%
Independiente del Valle 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Cuniburo (draw refunded)
45%
Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cuniburo at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

Independiente del Valle away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.17 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cuniburo attack 1.22 + Independiente del Valle defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.19

Independiente del Valle attack 1.56 + Cuniburo defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Cuniburo scores more
33%
level
27%
Independiente del Valle scores more
40%

Independiente del Valle at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro: Cuniburo 1–3 Independiente del Valle

Independiente del Valle beat Cuniburo 3-1 in Liga Pro on May 18, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa in Quito.