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Cuniburo vs Independiente del Valle — Copa Ecuador 2022

Cuniburo
Cuniburo
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Independiente del Valle
Independiente del Valleadvanced
J. Lugo 55' (pen)
K. Arroyo 90+1'
J. Medina 66'
8/29/2024Copa EcuadorCopa Ecuador · Round of 16Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Cuniburo30%
×Draw23%
Independiente del Valle48%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cuniburo
1.41
Independiente del Valle
1.84

Independiente del Valle creates 30% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 11 away

creates per match

Cuniburo
2.00
Independiente del Valle
2.36

allows per match

Cuniburo
1.33
Independiente del Valle
0.82

finishing

Cuniburo+0.00on par
Independiente del Valle+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cuniburo ↓

Independiente del Valle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Cuniburo or draw
52%
Cuniburo or Independiente del Valle
77%
Draw or Independiente del Valle
70%

Winning margin

Cuniburo wins by 2+
13%
Independiente del Valle wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Cuniburo 1+ goals
76%
Cuniburo 2+ goals
41%
Cuniburo 3+ goals
17%
Independiente del Valle 1+ goals
84%
Independiente del Valle 2+ goals
55%
Independiente del Valle 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Cuniburo (draw refunded)
38%
Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cuniburo at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Independiente del Valle away — creates 2.36, concedes 0.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cuniburo attack 2.00 + Independiente del Valle defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.41

Independiente del Valle attack 2.36 + Cuniburo defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Cuniburo scores more
30%
level
23%
Independiente del Valle scores more
48%

Independiente del Valle at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
J. Sornoza
25'
46'
C. Zabala← P. Mercado
46'
J. Sornoza← K. Arroyo
53'
L. Zarate
55'
J. LugoPenalty
64'
B. Caicedo← J. Medina
66'
J. Medina
69'
R. Ibarra← Y. Medina
81'
K. Paez← B. Garcia
90+1'
K. Arroyo
90+3'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cuniburo vs Independiente del Valle

Independiente del Valle beat Cuniburo 2-1 in Copa Ecuador on August 29, 2024.

Goals: J. Lugo (55' pen), J. Medina (66'), K. Arroyo (90+1').

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa in Quito.