Independiente del Valle 3–0 Corinthians

Independiente del Valle

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Corinthians

J. Sornoza 69'

M. Hoyos 24', 17'

6/7/2023

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 5Estadio Banco Guayaquil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Independiente del Valle60%

×Draw24%

Corinthians16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente del ValleExpected goals in this matchCorinthians

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

0.74

Independiente del Valle

1.68

Corinthians

0.74

Independiente del Valle creates 127% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 13 away

2.28

creates per match

0.69

0.80

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Independiente del Valle

2.28

Corinthians

0.69

allows per match

Independiente del Valle

0.80

Corinthians

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independiente del Valle+0.00on par

Corinthians+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente del Valle ↓

Corinthians →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Independiente del Valle or draw

84%

Independiente del Valle or Corinthians

76%

Draw or Corinthians

40%

Winning margin

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+

33%

Corinthians wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals

81%

Independiente del Valle 2+ goals

50%

Independiente del Valle 3+ goals

24%

Corinthians 1+ goals

52%

Corinthians 2+ goals

17%

Corinthians 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)

79%

Corinthians (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente del Valle at home — creates 2.28, concedes 0.80 · 25 matches

Corinthians away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente del Valle attack 2.28 + Corinthians defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.68

Corinthians attack 0.69 + Independiente del Valle defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Independiente del Valle scores more

60%

level

24%

Corinthians scores more

16%

Independiente del Valle at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

J. Sornoza

Independiente del Valle · F

9.0

Match Events

17'

21'

24'

46'

61'

63'

64'

69'

70'

70'

71'

71'

Pedro Henrique← Renato Augusto

71'

Biro← Maycon

73'

74'

77'

79'

80'

P. Mercado← C. Pellerano

80'

K. Rodríguez← A. Landázuri

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IndependienteCorinthians

Overview

56%Possession44%

16Total Shots3

4Corners3

5Fouls8

Shots

16Total Shots3

6On Target1

7Off Target2

3Blocked0

9Inside Box3

7Outside Box0

Passing

56%Possession44%

595Total Passes469

540Accurate Passes391

91%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

5Fouls8

3Yellow Cards3

2Offsides3

Match Recap: Independiente del Valle vs Corinthians

Independiente del Valle beat Corinthians 3-0 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on June 7, 2023.

Goals: M. Hoyos (17', 24'), J. Sornoza (69').

Independiente del Valle controlled possession (56%) and registered 16 shots to 3.

The match was played at Estadio Banco Guayaquil in Sangolquí.

Independiente del Valle vs Corinthians — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Independiente del Valle vs Corinthians