Corinthians 1–2 Independiente del Valle

Corinthians

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Independiente del Valle

Róger Guedes 35'

L. Díaz 52', 22'

5/3/2023

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 3Neo Química Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Corinthians55%

×Draw25%

Independiente del Valle20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CorinthiansExpected goals in this matchIndependiente del Valle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

0.85

Corinthians

1.60

Independiente del Valle

0.85

Corinthians creates 88% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 24 away

1.36

creates per match

0.92

0.79

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Corinthians

1.36

Independiente del Valle

0.92

allows per match

Corinthians

0.79

Independiente del Valle

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Corinthians+0.00on par

Independiente del Valle+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Corinthians ↓

Independiente del Valle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Corinthians or draw

80%

Corinthians or Independiente del Valle

75%

Draw or Independiente del Valle

45%

Winning margin

Corinthians wins by 2+

29%

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Corinthians 1+ goals

80%

Corinthians 2+ goals

47%

Corinthians 3+ goals

22%

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals

57%

Independiente del Valle 2+ goals

21%

Independiente del Valle 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Corinthians (draw refunded)

73%

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Corinthians at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.79 · 14 matches

Independiente del Valle away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.83 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Corinthians attack 1.36 + Independiente del Valle defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.60

Independiente del Valle attack 0.92 + Corinthians defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Corinthians scores more

55%

level

25%

Independiente del Valle scores more

20%

Corinthians at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Corinthians will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

L. Díaz

Independiente del Valle · F

8.2

Match Events

22'

L. Díaz↳ M. Hoyos

35'

Róger Guedes↳ Adson

40'

Yuri AlbertoGoal Disallowed - offside

40'

C. Pellerano

52'

L. Díaz

57'

Pedro Henrique← Yuri Alberto

57'

Paulinho← Giuliano

60'

J. AlcivarGoal Disallowed - offside

63'

K. Rodríguez← M. Hoyos

64'

Du Queiroz← Maycon

72'

N. Previtali← J. Alcívar

72'

74'

74'

78'

85'

Matheus Araújo← F. Vera

85'

Á. Romero← Adson

86'

Pedro Henrique

90+1'

E. Cabezas← G. Cortez

90+1'

P. Mercado← J. Ortiz

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CorinthiansIndependiente

Overview

53%Possession47%

16Total Shots10

3Corners3

11Fouls8

Shots

16Total Shots10

6On Target5

7Off Target5

3Blocked0

14Inside Box8

2Outside Box2

Passing

53%Possession47%

516Total Passes466

444Accurate Passes390

86%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls8

3Yellow Cards2

3Offsides2