Corinthians 0–2 Independiente del Valle

Corinthians

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Independiente del Valle

Gabriel Torres 69', 44'

9/19/2019

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Semi-finalsArena Corinthians

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Corinthians49%

×Draw27%

Independiente del Valle24%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CorinthiansExpected goals in this matchIndependiente del Valle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

0.89

Corinthians

1.41

Independiente del Valle

0.89

Corinthians creates 58% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 12 away

1.90

creates per match

1.17

0.60

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Corinthians

1.90

Independiente del Valle

1.17

allows per match

Corinthians

0.60

Independiente del Valle

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Corinthians+0.00on par

Independiente del Valle+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Corinthians ↓

Independiente del Valle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Corinthians or draw

76%

Corinthians or Independiente del Valle

73%

Draw or Independiente del Valle

51%

Winning margin

Corinthians wins by 2+

24%

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Corinthians 1+ goals

76%

Corinthians 2+ goals

41%

Corinthians 3+ goals

17%

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals

59%

Independiente del Valle 2+ goals

22%

Independiente del Valle 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Corinthians (draw refunded)

67%

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Corinthians at home — creates 1.90, concedes 0.60 · 20 matches

Independiente del Valle away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Corinthians attack 1.90 + Independiente del Valle defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.41

Independiente del Valle attack 1.17 + Corinthians defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Corinthians scores more

49%

level

27%

Independiente del Valle scores more

24%

Corinthians at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Corinthians will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

Gabriel Torres

Independiente del Valle · F

8.1

Match Events

31'

Gabriel Girotto

40'

Cristián Dájome

41'

Fagner

44'

Gabriel Torres↳ Cristián Dájome

46'

Gustavo← Gabriel Girotto

46'

Matheus Jesus← Clayson

68'

Alejandro Cabeza← Cristián Dájome

69'

Gabriel Torres↳ Alejandro Cabeza

72'

Anthony Landazuri

77'

Washington Corozo← Jhon Sánchez

82'

Janderson← Pedrinho

85'

Luis Fernando Leon← Efrén Mera

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CorinthiansIndependiente

Overview

57%Possession43%

15Total Shots8

7Corners3

7Fouls17

Shots

15Total Shots8

3On Target3

9Off Target3

3Blocked2

6Inside Box3

9Outside Box5

Passing

57%Possession43%

437Total Passes331

375Accurate Passes261

86%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

7Fouls17

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides2