Independiente del Valle 1–1 Atletico-MG

Independiente del Valle

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Atletico-MG

J. Sornoza 50'

Hulk 7'

4/27/2022

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 3Estadio Banco Guayaquil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Independiente del Valle51%

×Draw26%

Atletico-MG23%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independiente del ValleExpected goals in this matchAtletico-MG

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.94

Independiente del Valle

1.54

Atletico-MG

0.94

Independiente del Valle creates 64% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 27 away

2.28

creates per match

1.07

0.80

allows per match

0.81

creates per match

Independiente del Valle

2.28

Atletico-MG

1.07

allows per match

Independiente del Valle

0.80

Atletico-MG

0.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independiente del Valle+0.00on par

Atletico-MG+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente del Valle ↓

Atletico-MG →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Independiente del Valle or draw

77%

Independiente del Valle or Atletico-MG

74%

Draw or Atletico-MG

49%

Winning margin

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+

26%

Atletico-MG wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals

79%

Independiente del Valle 2+ goals

45%

Independiente del Valle 3+ goals

20%

Atletico-MG 1+ goals

61%

Atletico-MG 2+ goals

24%

Atletico-MG 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)

69%

Atletico-MG (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente del Valle at home — creates 2.28, concedes 0.80 · 25 matches

Atletico-MG away — creates 1.07, concedes 0.81 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente del Valle attack 2.28 + Atletico-MG defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.54

Atletico-MG attack 1.07 + Independiente del Valle defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Independiente del Valle scores more

51%

level

26%

Atletico-MG scores more

23%

Independiente del Valle at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

J. Sornoza

Independiente del Valle · F

7.7

Match Events

7'

Hulk↳ Guilherme Arana

21'

C. Pellerano

50'

J. Sornoza↳ P. Perlaza

52'

Allan

53'

M. Carabajal

73'

Guga← Mariano

73'

Rubens← I. Fernández

78'

E. Vargas← Ademir

78'

Otávio← Allan

79'

D. Cabezas← F. Gaibor

79'

B. Arce← J. Chávez

85'

M. Angulo← C. Pellerano

87'

J. Ayoví← J. Sornoza

90+3'

Calebe← Hulk

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IndependienteAtletico-MG

Overview

59%Possession41%

20Total Shots12

9Corners3

11Fouls9

Shots

20Total Shots12

3On Target4

12Off Target6

5Blocked2

11Inside Box7

9Outside Box5

Passing

59%Possession41%

521Total Passes376

466Accurate Passes314

89%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls9

2Yellow Cards1

3Offsides3

Match Recap: Independiente del Valle vs Atletico-MG

Independiente del Valle and Atletico-MG drew 1-1 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on April 27, 2022.

Goals: Hulk (7'), J. Sornoza (50').

Independiente del Valle controlled possession (59%) and registered 20 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estadio Banco Guayaquil in Sangolquí.

Independiente del Valle vs Atletico-MG — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Independiente del Valle vs Atletico-MG