Atletico-MG 3–1 Independiente del Valle

Atletico-MG

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Independiente del Valle

Sávio 90+6'

Hulk 56', 9'

W. Vargas 82'

5/19/2022

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 5Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Atletico-MG60%

×Draw22%

Independiente del Valle18%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico-MGExpected goals in this matchIndependiente del Valle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

0.91

Atletico-MG

1.88

Independiente del Valle

0.91

Atletico-MG creates 107% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 24 away

1.93

creates per match

0.92

0.89

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Atletico-MG

1.93

Independiente del Valle

0.92

allows per match

Atletico-MG

0.89

Independiente del Valle

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico-MG+0.00on par

Independiente del Valle+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico-MG ↓

Independiente del Valle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Atletico-MG or draw

82%

Atletico-MG or Independiente del Valle

78%

Draw or Independiente del Valle

40%

Winning margin

Atletico-MG wins by 2+

35%

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Atletico-MG 1+ goals

85%

Atletico-MG 2+ goals

56%

Atletico-MG 3+ goals

29%

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals

60%

Independiente del Valle 2+ goals

23%

Independiente del Valle 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Atletico-MG (draw refunded)

77%

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico-MG at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.89 · 28 matches

Independiente del Valle away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.83 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico-MG attack 1.93 + Independiente del Valle defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.88

Independiente del Valle attack 0.92 + Atletico-MG defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Atletico-MG scores more

60%

level

22%

Independiente del Valle scores more

18%

Atletico-MG at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Atletico-MG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

Allan

Atletico-MG · M

8.9

Match Events

9'

Hulk↳ Allan

26'

Luis Segovia

45'

Nathan Silva

56'

Hulk↳ Allan

67'

Eduardo Sasha

67'

Mariano← Eduardo Sasha

80'

Calebe← I. Fernández

80'

Sávio← Ademir

82'

W. Vargas↳ J. Sornoza

83'

M. Angulo← J. Bauman

83'

C. Angulo← W. Vargas

83'

L. Ortíz← F. Gaibor

87'

B. Caicedo← J. Chávez

88'

J. Ayoví← C. Pellerano

90+7'

Sávio

90+1'

Réver← Guga

90+1'

Otávio← Jair

90+6'

Sávio↳ Mariano

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Atletico-MGIndependiente

Overview

40%Possession60%

15Total Shots9

4Corners6

8Fouls7

Shots

15Total Shots9

7On Target2

8Off Target3

0Blocked4

11Inside Box6

4Outside Box3

Passing

40%Possession60%

397Total Passes580

325Accurate Passes490

82%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

8Fouls7

3Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1