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Atletico-MG vs Independiente del Valle — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2019

Atletico-MG
Atletico-MGadvanced
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Independiente del Valle
Independiente del Valle
10/29/2025CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Semi-FinalsArena MRV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Atletico-MG55%
×Draw26%
Independiente del Valle19%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico-MG
1.54
Independiente del Valle
0.79

Atletico-MG creates 95% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 13 away

creates per match

Atletico-MG
2.08
Independiente del Valle
1.08

allows per match

Atletico-MG
0.50
Independiente del Valle
1.00

finishing

Atletico-MG+0.00on par
Independiente del Valle+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico-MG ↓

Independiente del Valle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Atletico-MG or draw
81%
Atletico-MG or Independiente del Valle
74%
Draw or Independiente del Valle
45%

Winning margin

Atletico-MG wins by 2+
29%
Independiente del Valle wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Atletico-MG 1+ goals
79%
Atletico-MG 2+ goals
45%
Atletico-MG 3+ goals
20%
Independiente del Valle 1+ goals
55%
Independiente del Valle 2+ goals
19%
Independiente del Valle 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Atletico-MG (draw refunded)
74%
Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico-MG at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.50 · 12 matches

Independiente del Valle away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico-MG attack 2.08 + Independiente del Valle defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.54

Independiente del Valle attack 1.08 + Atletico-MG defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Atletico-MG scores more
55%
level
26%
Independiente del Valle scores more
19%

Atletico-MG at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Atletico-MG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atletico-MG vs Independiente del Valle

Atletico-MG beat Independiente del Valle 3-1 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on October 29, 2025.

The match was played at Arena MRV in Belo Horizonte.