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Independ. Rivadavia vs Estudiantes L.P. — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Independ. Rivadavia
Independ. Rivadavia
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Estudiantes L.P.
Estudiantes L.P.
F. Sartori 84'
S. Villa 81'
Gabriel Neves 82'
E. Cetre 59'
2/8/2025Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 1st Phase - 4Estadio Juan Bautista Gargantini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Independ. Rivadavia38%
×Draw32%
Estudiantes L.P.30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independ. Rivadavia
1.00
Estudiantes L.P.
0.85

Independ. Rivadavia creates 18% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 11 away

creates per match

Independ. Rivadavia
1.05
Estudiantes L.P.
0.70

allows per match

Independ. Rivadavia
1.01
Estudiantes L.P.
0.95

finishing

Independ. Rivadavia-0.32scores less
Estudiantes L.P.+0.30scores more

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independ. Rivadavia ↓

Estudiantes L.P. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Independ. Rivadavia or draw
70%
Independ. Rivadavia or Estudiantes L.P.
68%
Draw or Estudiantes L.P.
62%

Winning margin

Independ. Rivadavia wins by 2+
15%
Estudiantes L.P. wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Independ. Rivadavia 1+ goals
63%
Independ. Rivadavia 2+ goals
26%
Independ. Rivadavia 3+ goals
8%
Estudiantes L.P. 1+ goals
57%
Estudiantes L.P. 2+ goals
21%
Estudiantes L.P. 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Independ. Rivadavia (draw refunded)
56%
Estudiantes L.P. (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independ. Rivadavia at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.01 · 22 matches

Estudiantes L.P. away — creates 0.70, concedes 0.95 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independ. Rivadavia attack 1.05 + Estudiantes L.P. defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.00

Estudiantes L.P. attack 0.70 + Independ. Rivadavia defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Independ. Rivadavia scores more
38%
level
32%
Estudiantes L.P. scores more
30%

Independ. Rivadavia at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Independ. Rivadavia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18
E. CetreEstudiantes L.P.Estudiantes L.P. · F
8.0

Match Events

6'
L. Sequeira
6'
L. Gomez
26'
S. Nunez
41'
E. Meza
46'
A. Castro← J. Sosa
46'
E. Cetre← A. Manyoma
51'
S. Flores← S. Studer
59'
E. Cetre
64'
S. Ascacibar
65'
J. Barbieri← V. Ramis
66'
K. Retamar← M. Cardillo
67'
I. Villalba
72'
A. Castro
76'
B. Kociubinski← T. Palacios
76'
G. Carrillo← L. Alario
77'
M. Fernandez← L. Sequeira
77'
F. Sartori← M. Amarfil
81'
S. Villa↳ J. Barbieri
82'
Gabriel Neves
84'
F. Sartori
90+1'
A. Berti
90+1'
F. Rodriguez← Gabriel Neves

Possession

50%Independ.

Shots

19Independ.

Pass accuracy

50%Independ.

Statistics

Independ.Estudiantes
Overview
50%Possession50%
19Total Shots13
5Corners3
9Fouls15
Shots
19Total Shots13
6On Target3
6Off Target5
7Blocked5
10Inside Box5
9Outside Box8
Passing
50%Possession50%
352Total Passes365
276Accurate Passes289
78%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
9Fouls15
3Yellow Cards4
2Offsides2

Liga Profesional Argentina: Independ. Rivadavia 2–2 Estudiantes L.P.

Independ. Rivadavia and Estudiantes L.P. drew 2-2 in Liga Profesional Argentina on February 8, 2025.

Goals: E. Cetre (59'), S. Villa (81'), Gabriel Neves (82'), F. Sartori (84').

Independ. Rivadavia controlled possession (50%) and registered 19 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Bautista Gargantini in Mendoza.