Estudiantes L.P. 1–1 Independ. Rivadavia

Estudiantes L.P.

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Independ. Rivadavia

J. Sosa 9' (pen)

Franco Romero 37' (pen)

10/31/2024

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 20Estadio Jorge Luis Hirschi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Estudiantes L.P.44%

×Draw29%

Independ. Rivadavia26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Estudiantes L.P.Expected goals in this matchIndepend. Rivadavia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

0.86

Estudiantes L.P.

1.22

Independ. Rivadavia

0.86

Estudiantes L.P. creates 42% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 18 away

1.37

creates per match

0.79

0.93

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Estudiantes L.P.

1.37

Independ. Rivadavia

0.79

allows per match

Estudiantes L.P.

0.93

Independ. Rivadavia

1.06

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

Estudiantes L.P.-0.14scores less

Independ. Rivadavia+0.15scores more

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estudiantes L.P. ↓

Independ. Rivadavia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Estudiantes L.P. or draw

74%

Estudiantes L.P. or Independ. Rivadavia

71%

Draw or Independ. Rivadavia

56%

Winning margin

Estudiantes L.P. wins by 2+

20%

Independ. Rivadavia wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Estudiantes L.P. 1+ goals

70%

Estudiantes L.P. 2+ goals

34%

Estudiantes L.P. 3+ goals

12%

Independ. Rivadavia 1+ goals

58%

Independ. Rivadavia 2+ goals

21%

Independ. Rivadavia 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Estudiantes L.P. (draw refunded)

63%

Independ. Rivadavia (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estudiantes L.P. at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.93 · 13 matches

Independ. Rivadavia away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estudiantes L.P. attack 1.37 + Independ. Rivadavia defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.22

Independ. Rivadavia attack 0.79 + Estudiantes L.P. defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Estudiantes L.P. scores more

44%

level

29%

Independ. Rivadavia scores more

26%

Estudiantes L.P. at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Estudiantes L.P. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

42

S. Studer

Independ. Rivadavia · D

7.6

Match Events

8'

Iván Villalba

9'

J. SosaPenalty

20'

Eric Meza

35'

Sheyko StuderPenalty confirmed

37'

Franco RomeroPenalty

46'

G. Carrillo← J. Burgos

46'

L. Giménez← B. Kociubinski

62'

Luciano GiménezPenalty cancelled

65'

G. Ríos← V. Ramis

71'

E. Cetré← A. Castillo Manyoma

73'

F. Milo← L. Sequeira

73'

A. Mulet← D. Tonetto

76'

F. Pérez Escudero← G. Neves

82'

M. Ruíz Díaz← T. Ostchega

87'

S. Arzamendia← J. Sosa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EstudiantesIndepend.

Overview

65%Possession35%

13Total Shots3

1.53Expected Goals (xG)0.83

7Corners1

12Fouls7

Shots

13Total Shots3

3On Target3

5Off Target0

5Blocked0

9Inside Box1

4Outside Box2

Passing

65%Possession35%

496Total Passes280

389Accurate Passes160

78%Pass Accuracy57%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

0.17Goals Prevented0.17

Discipline

12Fouls7

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1