Estudiantes L.P. 2–1 Independ. Rivadavia

Estudiantes L.P.

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Independ. Rivadavia

L. Gonzalez Pirez 40'

Perez Fabricio 8'

S. Villa 90' (pen)

8/8/2025

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 4Estadio Jorge Luis Hirschi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Estudiantes L.P.44%

×Draw29%

Independ. Rivadavia26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Estudiantes L.P.Expected goals in this matchIndepend. Rivadavia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

0.86

Estudiantes L.P.

1.22

Independ. Rivadavia

0.86

Estudiantes L.P. creates 42% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 18 away

1.37

creates per match

0.79

0.93

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Estudiantes L.P.

1.37

Independ. Rivadavia

0.79

allows per match

Estudiantes L.P.

0.93

Independ. Rivadavia

1.06

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

Estudiantes L.P.-0.14scores less

Independ. Rivadavia+0.15scores more

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estudiantes L.P. ↓

Independ. Rivadavia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Estudiantes L.P. or draw

74%

Estudiantes L.P. or Independ. Rivadavia

71%

Draw or Independ. Rivadavia

56%

Winning margin

Estudiantes L.P. wins by 2+

20%

Independ. Rivadavia wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Estudiantes L.P. 1+ goals

70%

Estudiantes L.P. 2+ goals

34%

Estudiantes L.P. 3+ goals

12%

Independ. Rivadavia 1+ goals

58%

Independ. Rivadavia 2+ goals

21%

Independ. Rivadavia 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Estudiantes L.P. (draw refunded)

63%

Independ. Rivadavia (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estudiantes L.P. at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.93 · 13 matches

Independ. Rivadavia away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estudiantes L.P. attack 1.37 + Independ. Rivadavia defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.22

Independ. Rivadavia attack 0.79 + Estudiantes L.P. defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Estudiantes L.P. scores more

44%

level

29%

Independ. Rivadavia scores more

26%

Estudiantes L.P. at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Estudiantes L.P. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

Perez Fabricio

Estudiantes L.P. · M

9.0

Match Events

8'

Perez Fabricio↳ G. Benedetti

40'

L. Gonzalez Pirez↳ Perez Fabricio

45'

Tomas Bottari

46'

M. Fernandez← A. Arce

46'

F. Sartori← T. Ortega

61'

Román Gómez

65'

J. Sosa← T. Palacios

65'

F. Farias← L. Alario

65'

E. Cetre← Perez Fabricio

68'

Matías Fernández

71'

J. Barbieri← T. Bottari

72'

M. Cardillo← L. Gomez

72'

S. Munoz← K. Retamar

75'

G. Carrillo← M. Amondarain

78'

S. Nunez← C. Medina

79'

Santiago Ascacíbar

84'

Facundo Farías

90+3'

Leandro González Pírez

90+2'

Gastón Benedetti

90'

Mauricio CardilloPenalty confirmed

90'

S. VillaPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EstudiantesIndepend.

Overview

55%Possession45%

11Total Shots7

1.16Expected Goals (xG)1.08

4Corners3

12Fouls15

Shots

11Total Shots7

4On Target4

5Off Target2

2Blocked1

7Inside Box3

4Outside Box4

Passing

55%Possession45%

439Total Passes354

359Accurate Passes270

82%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

-0.36Goals Prevented-0.36

Discipline

12Fouls15

4Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

1Offsides4