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Independ. Rivadavia vs Defensa Y Justicia — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Independ. Rivadavia
Independ. Rivadavia
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Defensa Y Justicia
Defensa Y Justicia
M. Cardillo 83'
F. Sartori 72'
L. Gomez 19'
G. Togni 45'
C. Perez 36'
5/2/2025Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 1st Phase - 16Estadio Juan Bautista Gargantini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Independ. Rivadavia40%
×Draw28%
Defensa Y Justicia32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independ. Rivadavia
1.27
Defensa Y Justicia
1.10

Independ. Rivadavia creates 15% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 13 away

creates per match

Independ. Rivadavia
1.05
Defensa Y Justicia
1.20

allows per match

Independ. Rivadavia
1.01
Defensa Y Justicia
1.49

finishing

Independ. Rivadavia-0.32scores less
Defensa Y Justicia-0.43scores less

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independ. Rivadavia ↓

Defensa Y Justicia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Independ. Rivadavia or draw
68%
Independ. Rivadavia or Defensa Y Justicia
72%
Draw or Defensa Y Justicia
60%

Winning margin

Independ. Rivadavia wins by 2+
18%
Defensa Y Justicia wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Independ. Rivadavia 1+ goals
72%
Independ. Rivadavia 2+ goals
36%
Independ. Rivadavia 3+ goals
14%
Defensa Y Justicia 1+ goals
67%
Defensa Y Justicia 2+ goals
30%
Defensa Y Justicia 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Independ. Rivadavia (draw refunded)
56%
Defensa Y Justicia (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independ. Rivadavia at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.01 · 22 matches

Defensa Y Justicia away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.49 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independ. Rivadavia attack 1.05 + Defensa Y Justicia defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.27

Defensa Y Justicia attack 1.20 + Independ. Rivadavia defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Independ. Rivadavia scores more
40%
level
28%
Defensa Y Justicia scores more
32%

Independ. Rivadavia at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Independ. Rivadavia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
G. TogniDefensa Y JusticiaDefensa Y Justicia · F
8.2

Match Events

19'
L. Gomez↳ M. Fernandez
36'
C. Perez↳ L. Gonzalez
38'
T. Ortega← L. Sequeira
45'
G. Togni↳ K. Gutierrez
46'
K. Retamar← M. Valenti
54'
Tobías Rubio
57'
G. Gonzalez← F. Gonzalez
61'
Nicolás Retamar
61'
Lucas González
63'
Emanuel Aguilera
63'
M. Gonzalez← L. Gonzalez
68'
M. Cardillo← T. Bottari
68'
J. Barbieri← M. Fernandez
72'
F. Sartori↳ K. Retamar
79'
V. Larralde← K. Gutierrez
79'
N. Palavecino← C. Perez
79'
J. B. Miritello← A. Osorio
83'
M. Cardillo↳ K. Retamar
84'
A. Osella← L. Gomez
90'
Valentín Larralde

Possession

49%Independ.

Shots

12Independ.

Pass accuracy

48%Independ.

Statistics

Independ.Defensa
Overview
49%Possession51%
12Total Shots19
5Corners5
16Fouls11
Shots
12Total Shots19
6On Target6
3Off Target10
3Blocked3
10Inside Box7
2Outside Box12
Passing
49%Possession51%
366Total Passes370
266Accurate Passes296
73%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
4Saves3
Discipline
16Fouls11
1Yellow Cards4

Match Recap: Independ. Rivadavia vs Defensa Y Justicia

Independ. Rivadavia beat Defensa Y Justicia 3-2 in Liga Profesional Argentina on May 2, 2025.

Goals: L. Gomez (19'), C. Perez (36'), G. Togni (45'), F. Sartori (72'), M. Cardillo (83').

Defensa Y Justicia controlled possession (51%) and registered 19 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Bautista Gargantini in Mendoza.