Defensa Y Justicia 0–2 Independ. Rivadavia

Defensa Y Justicia

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Independ. Rivadavia

S. Studer 69'

M. Fernandez 14'

11/17/2025

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 16Estadio Norberto Tito Tomaghello

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Defensa Y Justicia37%

×Draw30%

Independ. Rivadavia33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Defensa Y JusticiaExpected goals in this matchIndepend. Rivadavia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.02

Defensa Y Justicia

1.08

Independ. Rivadavia

1.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 20 away

1.09

creates per match

0.80

1.23

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Defensa Y Justicia

1.09

Independ. Rivadavia

0.80

allows per match

Defensa Y Justicia

1.23

Independ. Rivadavia

1.07

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

Defensa Y Justicia-0.20scores less

Independ. Rivadavia+0.15scores more

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Defensa Y Justicia ↓

Independ. Rivadavia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Defensa Y Justicia or draw

67%

Defensa Y Justicia or Independ. Rivadavia

70%

Draw or Independ. Rivadavia

63%

Winning margin

Defensa Y Justicia wins by 2+

15%

Independ. Rivadavia wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Defensa Y Justicia 1+ goals

66%

Defensa Y Justicia 2+ goals

29%

Defensa Y Justicia 3+ goals

10%

Independ. Rivadavia 1+ goals

64%

Independ. Rivadavia 2+ goals

27%

Independ. Rivadavia 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Defensa Y Justicia (draw refunded)

52%

Independ. Rivadavia (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Defensa Y Justicia at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.23 · 9 matches

Independ. Rivadavia away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.07 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Defensa Y Justicia attack 1.09 + Independ. Rivadavia defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.08

Independ. Rivadavia attack 0.80 + Defensa Y Justicia defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Defensa Y Justicia scores more

37%

level

30%

Independ. Rivadavia scores more

33%

Defensa Y Justicia at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Defensa Y Justicia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

N. Bolcato

Independ. Rivadavia · G

8.2

Match Events

14'

M. Fernandez↳ S. Villa

46'

K. Gutierrez← S. Sosa

46'

M. Aguiar← M. Miranda

46'

Lenny Lobato← J. Gutierrez

55'

Matías Fernández

62'

L. Gonzalez← A. Molinas

63'

K. Retamar← F. Sartori

69'

S. Studer↳ L. Gomez

74'

E. Bonifacio← M. Cardillo

78'

N. Stefanelli← R. Delgado

82'

I. Villalba← A. Osella

82'

T. Andino← L. Gomez

82'

D. Tonetto← M. Fernandez

86'

Lucas González

87'

Iván Villalba

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DefensaIndepend.

Overview

66%Possession34%

11Total Shots7

0.55Expected Goals (xG)1.53

4Corners2

6Fouls15

Shots

11Total Shots7

3On Target3

2Off Target1

6Blocked3

5Inside Box6

6Outside Box1

Passing

66%Possession34%

533Total Passes271

453Accurate Passes193

85%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

0.24Goals Prevented0.24

Discipline

6Fouls15

1Yellow Cards2

0Offsides3

Match Recap: Defensa Y Justicia vs Independ. Rivadavia

Independ. Rivadavia beat Defensa Y Justicia 2-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on November 17, 2025.

Goals: M. Fernandez (14'), S. Studer (69').

Defensa Y Justicia controlled possession (66%) and registered 11 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio Norberto Tito Tomaghello in Gobernador Julio A. Costa.

Defensa Y Justicia vs Independ. Rivadavia — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Defensa Y Justicia vs Independ. Rivadavia