Independ. Rivadavia 1–0 Defensa Y Justicia

Independ. Rivadavia

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Defensa Y Justicia

Franco Romero 7' (pen)

9/17/2024

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 14Estadio Juan Bautista Gargantini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Independ. Rivadavia40%

×Draw28%

Defensa Y Justicia32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independ. RivadaviaExpected goals in this matchDefensa Y Justicia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.10

Independ. Rivadavia

1.27

Defensa Y Justicia

1.10

Independ. Rivadavia creates 15% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 13 away

1.05

creates per match

1.20

1.01

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Independ. Rivadavia

1.05

Defensa Y Justicia

1.20

allows per match

Independ. Rivadavia

1.01

Defensa Y Justicia

1.49

-0.32scores less than expected

finishing

-0.43scores less than expected

finishing

Independ. Rivadavia-0.32scores less

Defensa Y Justicia-0.43scores less

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independ. Rivadavia ↓

Defensa Y Justicia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Independ. Rivadavia or draw

68%

Independ. Rivadavia or Defensa Y Justicia

72%

Draw or Defensa Y Justicia

60%

Winning margin

Independ. Rivadavia wins by 2+

18%

Defensa Y Justicia wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Independ. Rivadavia 1+ goals

72%

Independ. Rivadavia 2+ goals

36%

Independ. Rivadavia 3+ goals

14%

Defensa Y Justicia 1+ goals

67%

Defensa Y Justicia 2+ goals

30%

Defensa Y Justicia 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Independ. Rivadavia (draw refunded)

56%

Defensa Y Justicia (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independ. Rivadavia at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.01 · 22 matches

Defensa Y Justicia away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.49 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independ. Rivadavia attack 1.05 + Defensa Y Justicia defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.27

Defensa Y Justicia attack 1.20 + Independ. Rivadavia defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Independ. Rivadavia scores more

40%

level

28%

Defensa Y Justicia scores more

32%

Independ. Rivadavia at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Independ. Rivadavia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

E. Aguilera

Defensa Y Justicia · D

7.3

Match Events

7'

Franco RomeroPenalty

18'

S. Studer← E. Burgos

33'

Ezequiel Cannavo

47'

Federico Milo

63'

A. Osorio← L. Herrera

68'

Ezequiel Ham

70'

L. Sequeira← Ezequiel Ham

70'

M. Asenjo← Fernando Romero

75'

76'

77'

82'

83'

85'

M. Ramírez← E. Cannavo

85'

88'

88'

90+7'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Independ.Defensa

Overview

32%Possession68%

6Total Shots15

0.87Expected Goals (xG)0.93

4Corners3

17Fouls6

Shots

6Total Shots15

2On Target3

1Off Target8

3Blocked4

4Inside Box7

2Outside Box8

Passing

32%Possession68%

214Total Passes459

126Accurate Passes362

59%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

-0.28Goals Prevented-0.28

Discipline

17Fouls6

5Yellow Cards2

4Offsides3

Match Recap: Independ. Rivadavia vs Defensa Y Justicia

Independ. Rivadavia beat Defensa Y Justicia 1-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on September 17, 2024.

Goals: Franco Romero (7' pen).

Defensa Y Justicia controlled possession (68%) and registered 15 shots to 6.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Bautista Gargantini in Mendoza, Provincia de Mendoza.

Independ. Rivadavia vs Defensa Y Justicia — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Independ. Rivadavia vs Defensa Y Justicia