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Independ. Rivadavia vs Boca Juniors — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Independ. Rivadavia
Independ. Rivadavia
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Boca Juniors
Boca Juniors
A. Velasco 90'
E. Zeballos 88'
T. Bottari 30' (OG)
8/17/2025Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 5Estadio Juan Bautista Gargantini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Independ. Rivadavia39%
×Draw30%
Boca Juniors31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independ. Rivadavia
1.10
Boca Juniors
0.96

Independ. Rivadavia creates 15% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 14 away

creates per match

Independ. Rivadavia
1.05
Boca Juniors
0.91

allows per match

Independ. Rivadavia
1.01
Boca Juniors
1.15

finishing

Independ. Rivadavia-0.32scores less
Boca Juniors+0.30scores more

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independ. Rivadavia ↓

Boca Juniors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Independ. Rivadavia or draw
69%
Independ. Rivadavia or Boca Juniors
70%
Draw or Boca Juniors
61%

Winning margin

Independ. Rivadavia wins by 2+
16%
Boca Juniors wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Independ. Rivadavia 1+ goals
67%
Independ. Rivadavia 2+ goals
30%
Independ. Rivadavia 3+ goals
10%
Boca Juniors 1+ goals
62%
Boca Juniors 2+ goals
25%
Boca Juniors 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Independ. Rivadavia (draw refunded)
55%
Boca Juniors (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independ. Rivadavia at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.01 · 22 matches

Boca Juniors away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.15 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independ. Rivadavia attack 1.05 + Boca Juniors defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.10

Boca Juniors attack 0.91 + Independ. Rivadavia defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Independ. Rivadavia scores more
39%
level
30%
Boca Juniors scores more
31%

Independ. Rivadavia at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Independ. Rivadavia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15
W. H. Alarcon CepedaBoca JuniorsBoca Juniors · M
8.0

Match Events

20'
Carlos Palacios
22'
Pedro Souto
26'
Marco Pellegrino
30'
T. BottariOwn goal
63'
M. Fernandez← M. Amarfil
63'
K. Retamar← P. Souto
64'
E. Zeballos← B. Aguirre
64'
M. Gimenez← E. Cavani
70'
W. H. Alarcon Cepeda← Carlos Palacios
73'
A. Velasco← Miguel Merentiel
76'
J. Barbieri← T. Ortega
83'
Alan Velasco
88'
E. Zeballos↳ W. H. Alarcon Cepeda
90+3'
Sheyko Studer
90+1'
A. Osella← T. Bottari
90+1'
S. Munoz← L. Gomez
90'
A. Velasco↳ M. Gimenez

Possession

52%Independ.

Shots

11Independ.

Pass accuracy

48%Independ.

Statistics

Independ.Boca
Overview
52%Possession48%
11Total Shots11
0.93Expected Goals (xG)1.54
6Corners5
11Fouls12
Shots
11Total Shots11
1On Target3
7Off Target6
3Blocked2
7Inside Box7
4Outside Box4
Passing
52%Possession48%
415Total Passes375
318Accurate Passes313
77%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
1Saves0
0.00Goals Prevented0.00
Discipline
11Fouls12
2Yellow Cards3
1Offsides0

Liga Profesional Argentina: Independ. Rivadavia 0–3 Boca Juniors

Boca Juniors beat Independ. Rivadavia 3-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on August 17, 2025.

Goals: T. Bottari (30' o.g.), E. Zeballos (88'), A. Velasco (90').

Independ. Rivadavia controlled possession (52%) and registered 11 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Bautista Gargantini in Mendoza.