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Boca Juniors vs Independ. Rivadavia — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Boca Juniors
Boca Juniors
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Independ. Rivadavia
Independ. Rivadavia
E. Zeballos 83'
Miguel Merentiel 51'
2/11/2025Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 1st Phase - 5Estadio Alberto J. Armando

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Boca Juniors46%
×Draw29%
Independ. Rivadavia25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Boca Juniors
1.29
Independ. Rivadavia
0.86

Boca Juniors creates 50% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 20 away

creates per match

Boca Juniors
1.52
Independ. Rivadavia
0.80

allows per match

Boca Juniors
0.92
Independ. Rivadavia
1.07

finishing

Boca Juniors-0.08on par
Independ. Rivadavia+0.15scores more

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boca Juniors ↓

Independ. Rivadavia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Boca Juniors or draw
75%
Boca Juniors or Independ. Rivadavia
71%
Draw or Independ. Rivadavia
54%

Winning margin

Boca Juniors wins by 2+
21%
Independ. Rivadavia wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Boca Juniors 1+ goals
72%
Boca Juniors 2+ goals
37%
Boca Juniors 3+ goals
14%
Independ. Rivadavia 1+ goals
58%
Independ. Rivadavia 2+ goals
21%
Independ. Rivadavia 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Boca Juniors (draw refunded)
65%
Independ. Rivadavia (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boca Juniors at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.92 · 18 matches

Independ. Rivadavia away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.07 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boca Juniors attack 1.52 + Independ. Rivadavia defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.29

Independ. Rivadavia attack 0.80 + Boca Juniors defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Boca Juniors scores more
46%
level
29%
Independ. Rivadavia scores more
25%

Boca Juniors at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Boca Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
M. SaracchiBoca JuniorsBoca Juniors · D
7.6

Match Events

15'
Ayrton Costa
19'
L. Di Lollo← T. Belmonte
50'
Alan Velasco
51'
Miguel Merentiel
58'
Lautaro Di Lollo
58'
Iván Villalba
65'
J. Ruiz← A. Velasco
65'
E. Zeballos← Miguel Merentiel
66'
K. Retamar← V. Ramis
66'
J. Barbieri← M. Cardillo
79'
L. Advincula← J. Barinaga
79'
F. Sartori← L. Sequeira
81'
Williams Alarcón
83'
E. Zeballos
84'
D. Tonetto← T. Bottari
84'
M. Fernandez← M. Amarfil
90+2'
Matías Fernández

Possession

50%Boca

Shots

17Boca

Pass accuracy

51%Boca

Statistics

BocaIndepend.
Overview
50%Possession50%
17Total Shots14
5Corners4
13Fouls11
Shots
17Total Shots14
6On Target3
4Off Target5
7Blocked6
14Inside Box8
3Outside Box6
Passing
50%Possession50%
372Total Passes368
291Accurate Passes277
78%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
13Fouls11
4Yellow Cards2
0Offsides1

Liga Profesional Argentina: Boca Juniors 2–0 Independ. Rivadavia

Boca Juniors beat Independ. Rivadavia 2-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on February 11, 2025.

Goals: Miguel Merentiel (51'), E. Zeballos (83').

Boca Juniors controlled possession (50%) and registered 17 shots to 14.

The match was played at Estadio Alberto J. Armando in Buenos Aires.