Independ. Rivadavia 1–1 Boca Juniors

Independ. Rivadavia

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Boca Juniors

I. Villalba 77'

C. Medina 90+5'

8/10/2024

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 10Estadio Malvinas Argentinas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Independ. Rivadavia39%

×Draw30%

Boca Juniors31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independ. RivadaviaExpected goals in this matchBoca Juniors

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

0.96

Independ. Rivadavia

1.10

Boca Juniors

0.96

Independ. Rivadavia creates 15% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 14 away

1.05

creates per match

0.91

1.01

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Independ. Rivadavia

1.05

Boca Juniors

0.91

allows per match

Independ. Rivadavia

1.01

Boca Juniors

1.15

-0.32scores less than expected

finishing

+0.30scores more than expected

finishing

Independ. Rivadavia-0.32scores less

Boca Juniors+0.30scores more

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independ. Rivadavia ↓

Boca Juniors →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Independ. Rivadavia or draw

69%

Independ. Rivadavia or Boca Juniors

70%

Draw or Boca Juniors

61%

Winning margin

Independ. Rivadavia wins by 2+

16%

Boca Juniors wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Independ. Rivadavia 1+ goals

67%

Independ. Rivadavia 2+ goals

30%

Independ. Rivadavia 3+ goals

10%

Boca Juniors 1+ goals

62%

Boca Juniors 2+ goals

25%

Boca Juniors 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Independ. Rivadavia (draw refunded)

55%

Boca Juniors (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independ. Rivadavia at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.01 · 22 matches

Boca Juniors away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.15 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independ. Rivadavia attack 1.05 + Boca Juniors defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.10

Boca Juniors attack 0.91 + Independ. Rivadavia defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Independ. Rivadavia scores more

39%

level

30%

Boca Juniors scores more

31%

Independ. Rivadavia at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Independ. Rivadavia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

G. Fernández

Boca Juniors · M

7.7

Match Events

39'

Gary Medel

41'

Franco Romero

43'

Nicolás Figal

46'

M. Mendía← B. Aguirre

68'

T. Belmonte← G. Medel

69'

G. Ríos← L. Ríos

76'

Lautaro Blanco

77'

I. Villalba↳ S. Villa

79'

V. Ramis← Fernando Romero

79'

L. Gómez← L. Abecasis

83'

Luciano Gómez

84'

E. Zeballos← K. Zenón

84'

M. Giménez← G. Fernández

85'

F. Petrasso← E. Burgos

86'

M. Asenjo← S. Villa

90+2'

Tobías Ostchega

90+5'

C. Medina↳ M. Merentiel

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Independ.Boca

Overview

37%Possession63%

12Total Shots9

1.87Expected Goals (xG)1.32

6Corners5

10Fouls12

Shots

12Total Shots9

4On Target5

4Off Target3

4Blocked1

6Inside Box7

6Outside Box2

Passing

37%Possession63%

310Total Passes526

235Accurate Passes442

76%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

0.03Goals Prevented0.03

Discipline

10Fouls12

3Yellow Cards3

1Offsides3

Match Recap: Independ. Rivadavia vs Boca Juniors

Independ. Rivadavia and Boca Juniors drew 1-1 in Liga Profesional Argentina on August 10, 2024.

Goals: I. Villalba (77'), C. Medina (90+5').

Boca Juniors controlled possession (63%) and registered 9 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estadio Malvinas Argentinas in Mendoza, Provincia de Mendoza.

Independ. Rivadavia vs Boca Juniors — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Independ. Rivadavia vs Boca Juniors