Independ. Rivadavia 1–0 Aldosivi: Result & Stats

Independ. Rivadavia

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Aldosivi

S. Villa 31' (pen)

4/23/2025

Liga Profesional Argentina · 1st Phase - 14Estadio Juan Bautista Gargantini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Independ. Rivadavia44%

×Draw28%

Aldosivi28%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independ. RivadaviaExpected goals in this matchAldosivi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.97

Independ. Rivadavia

1.31

Aldosivi

0.97

Independ. Rivadavia creates 35% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 6 away

1.02

creates per match

0.92

1.01

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Independ. Rivadavia

1.02

Aldosivi

0.92

allows per match

Independ. Rivadavia

1.01

Aldosivi

1.59

-0.02on par

finishing

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

Independ. Rivadavia-0.02on par

Aldosivi-0.25scores less

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independ. Rivadavia ↓

Aldosivi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Independ. Rivadavia or draw

72%

Independ. Rivadavia or Aldosivi

72%

Draw or Aldosivi

56%

Winning margin

Independ. Rivadavia wins by 2+

20%

Aldosivi wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Independ. Rivadavia 1+ goals

73%

Independ. Rivadavia 2+ goals

38%

Independ. Rivadavia 3+ goals

14%

Aldosivi 1+ goals

62%

Aldosivi 2+ goals

25%

Aldosivi 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Independ. Rivadavia (draw refunded)

62%

Aldosivi (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independ. Rivadavia at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.01 · 10 matches

Aldosivi away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.59 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independ. Rivadavia attack 1.02 + Aldosivi defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.31

Aldosivi attack 0.92 + Independ. Rivadavia defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Independ. Rivadavia scores more

44%

level

28%

Aldosivi scores more

28%

Independ. Rivadavia at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Independ. Rivadavia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

44

G. Cerato

Aldosivi · D

8.0

Match Events

17'

A. Palavecino← J. Giani

28'

Roberto Bochi

31'

R. Gonzalez← L. Chavez

31'

S. VillaPenalty

66'

M. Fernandez← L. Sequeira

66'

T. Ortega← J. Barbieri

66'

F. Sartori← M. Cardillo

76'

T. Kummer←

76'

E. Preciado← R. Bochi

76'

A. Dominguez← T. Serrago

78'

L. Costa← L. Gomez

90'

K. Retamar← S. Villa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Independ.Aldosivi

Overview

40%Possession60%

8Total Shots23

3Corners3

7Fouls9

Shots

8Total Shots23

2On Target4

3Off Target11

3Blocked8

4Inside Box10

4Outside Box13

Passing

40%Possession60%

310Total Passes462

222Accurate Passes353

72%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

7Fouls9

0Yellow Cards1

2Offsides0