Aldosivi 3–1 Independ. Rivadavia: Result & Stats

Aldosivi

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Independ. Rivadavia

T. Cervera 69'

A. Palavecino 55'

J. Giani 3'

A. Arce 71'

11/1/2025

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 14Estadio José María Minella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Aldosivi40%

×Draw32%

Independ. Rivadavia28%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AldosiviExpected goals in this matchIndepend. Rivadavia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

0.81

Aldosivi

1.02

Independ. Rivadavia

0.81

Aldosivi creates 26% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 11 away

0.95

creates per match

0.78

0.85

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Aldosivi

0.95

Independ. Rivadavia

0.78

allows per match

Aldosivi

0.85

Independ. Rivadavia

1.09

+0.05on par

finishing

+0.31scores more than expected

finishing

Aldosivi+0.05on par

Independ. Rivadavia+0.31scores more

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aldosivi ↓

Independ. Rivadavia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–113%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Aldosivi or draw

72%

Aldosivi or Independ. Rivadavia

68%

Draw or Independ. Rivadavia

60%

Winning margin

Aldosivi wins by 2+

15%

Independ. Rivadavia wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Aldosivi 1+ goals

64%

Aldosivi 2+ goals

27%

Aldosivi 3+ goals

8%

Independ. Rivadavia 1+ goals

56%

Independ. Rivadavia 2+ goals

19%

Independ. Rivadavia 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Aldosivi (draw refunded)

58%

Independ. Rivadavia (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aldosivi at home — creates 0.95, concedes 0.85 · 5 matches

Independ. Rivadavia away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aldosivi attack 0.95 + Independ. Rivadavia defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.02

Independ. Rivadavia attack 0.78 + Aldosivi defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Aldosivi scores more

40%

level

32%

Independ. Rivadavia scores more

28%

Aldosivi at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Aldosivi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

40

J. Giani

Aldosivi · F

9.2

Match Events

3'

20'

35'

47'

53'

A. Palavecino← N. Guzman

54'

Thomas Ortega

55'

A. Palavecino↳ G. Mottes

56'

M. Amarfil← T. Ortega

56'

M. Bergara← D. Tonetto

62'

S. Villa← J. Barbieri

62'

A. Arce← F. Sartori

63'

Tiago Serrago

66'

R. Gonzalez← T. Serrago

66'

T. Cervera← F. Rami

68'

P. Souto← E. Bonifacio

69'

T. Cervera↳ J. Giani

71'

A. Arce↳ M. Bergara

80'

I. Guerrico← F. Roman

90+6'

Alex ArceGoal cancelled

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AldosiviIndepend.

Overview

43%Possession57%

17Total Shots9

1.46Expected Goals (xG)1.65

6Corners7

17Fouls15

Shots

17Total Shots9

7On Target4

5Off Target4

5Blocked1

14Inside Box7

3Outside Box2

Passing

43%Possession57%

281Total Passes361

174Accurate Passes250

62%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

-1.40Goals Prevented-1.40

Discipline

17Fouls15

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2