Independ. Rivadavia 2–1 Aldosivi: Result & Stats

Independ. Rivadavia

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Aldosivi

A. Arce 54', 23'

C. Riaño 20'

6/17/2023

Primera Nacional · Group B - 18Estadio Juan Bautista Gargantini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Independ. Rivadavia46%

×Draw28%

Aldosivi26%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independ. RivadaviaExpected goals in this matchAldosivi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.94

Independ. Rivadavia

1.33

Aldosivi

0.94

Independ. Rivadavia creates 41% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 36 away

1.49

creates per match

0.97

0.91

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Independ. Rivadavia

1.49

Aldosivi

0.97

allows per match

Independ. Rivadavia

0.91

Aldosivi

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independ. Rivadavia+0.00on par

Aldosivi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independ. Rivadavia ↓

Aldosivi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Independ. Rivadavia or draw

74%

Independ. Rivadavia or Aldosivi

72%

Draw or Aldosivi

54%

Winning margin

Independ. Rivadavia wins by 2+

21%

Aldosivi wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Independ. Rivadavia 1+ goals

74%

Independ. Rivadavia 2+ goals

38%

Independ. Rivadavia 3+ goals

15%

Aldosivi 1+ goals

61%

Aldosivi 2+ goals

24%

Aldosivi 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Independ. Rivadavia (draw refunded)

63%

Aldosivi (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independ. Rivadavia at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.91 · 87 matches

Aldosivi away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.17 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independ. Rivadavia attack 1.49 + Aldosivi defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.33

Aldosivi attack 0.97 + Independ. Rivadavia defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Independ. Rivadavia scores more

46%

level

28%

Aldosivi scores more

26%

Independ. Rivadavia at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Independ. Rivadavia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

20'

23'

25'

28'

45+2'

54'

56'

62'

F. Pereyra← M. Morello

62'

B. Guerra← R. Lucero

71'

J. Aguirre← A. Dionisio

73'

S. Laquidain

75'

E. Torres← A. Cervera

76'

F. De La Vega← F. Curuchet

77'

F. De La Vega

78'

J. Indacoechea← C. Riaño

79'

J. Ascacibar← V. Ramis

90+3'

M. Guanini

90+1'

M. Ortale← M. González

90+1'

B. Sánchez← D. Tonetto

Independ.

Aldosivi

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Manager: A. Berti

71'▲J. Aguirre←▼A. Dionisio

79'▲J. Ascacibar←▼V. Ramis

90+1'▲M. Ortale←▼M. González

90+1'▲B. Sánchez←▼D. Tonetto

Independ. Rivadavia substitutes

AguirreAscacibarOrtaleSánchezPeralesPetrassoMasueroDistauloMoya

Manager: F. Quiroz

62'▲F. Pereyra←▼M. Morello

62'▲B. Guerra←▼R. Lucero

75'▲E. Torres←▼A. Cervera

76'▲F. De La Vega←▼F. Curuchet

78'▲J. Indacoechea←▼C. Riaño

Aldosivi substitutes

PereyraGuerraTorresVegaIndacoecheaPanaroIngolottiParedesBrítez

Primera Nacional: Independ. Rivadavia 2–1 Aldosivi

Independ. Rivadavia beat Aldosivi 2-1 in Primera Nacional on June 17, 2023.

Goals: C. Riaño (20'), A. Arce (23', 54').

The match was played at Estadio Juan Bautista Gargantini in Mendoza, Provincia de Mendoza.

Independ. Rivadavia vs Aldosivi — Primera Nacional 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera Nacional: Independ. Rivadavia 2–1 Aldosivi