IMT Novi Beograd 0–0 FK Partizan: Result & Stats

IMT Novi Beograd

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

FK Partizan

8/11/2024

Super Liga · Round 4Stadion Kraljevica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

IMT Novi Beograd26%

×Draw25%

FK Partizan49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IMT Novi BeogradExpected goals in this matchFK Partizan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.59

IMT Novi Beograd

1.09

FK Partizan

1.59

FK Partizan creates 46% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 142 away

1.21

creates per match

1.90

1.28

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

IMT Novi Beograd

1.21

FK Partizan

1.90

allows per match

IMT Novi Beograd

1.28

FK Partizan

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IMT Novi Beograd+0.00on par

FK Partizan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IMT Novi Beograd ↓

FK Partizan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

IMT Novi Beograd or draw

51%

IMT Novi Beograd or FK Partizan

75%

Draw or FK Partizan

74%

Winning margin

IMT Novi Beograd wins by 2+

10%

FK Partizan wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

IMT Novi Beograd 1+ goals

66%

IMT Novi Beograd 2+ goals

30%

IMT Novi Beograd 3+ goals

10%

FK Partizan 1+ goals

80%

FK Partizan 2+ goals

47%

FK Partizan 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

IMT Novi Beograd (draw refunded)

35%

FK Partizan (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IMT Novi Beograd at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.28 · 58 matches

FK Partizan away — creates 1.90, concedes 0.97 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IMT Novi Beograd attack 1.21 + FK Partizan defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.09

FK Partizan attack 1.90 + IMT Novi Beograd defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

IMT Novi Beograd scores more

26%

level

25%

FK Partizan scores more

49%

FK Partizan at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "FK Partizan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

A. Jovanović

FK Partizan · G

7.9

Match Events

46'

Z. Ibrahim← J. Grimaldo

46'

M. Lazarević← V. Đurđević

46'

M. Jurčević← N. Antić

62'

N. Nikolić← G. Zahid

63'

N. Glišić← S. Bastaja

75'

X. Severina← Đ. Jovanović

77'

L. Luković← A. Stevanović

78'

V. Radočaj← N. Terzić

83'

Lazar Konstantinov

89'

Svetozar MarkovićGoal cancelled

90'

Bibars Natcho

90+5'

M. Jović← L. Konstantinov

90+6'

M. Jevtić← A. Lutovac

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IMTFK

Overview

38%Possession62%

10Total Shots9

1Corners3

14Fouls14

Shots

10Total Shots9

4On Target2

5Off Target5

1Blocked2

7Inside Box6

3Outside Box3

Passing

38%Possession62%

349Total Passes571

265Accurate Passes478

76%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls14

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2