FK Partizan 1–1 IMT Novi Beograd: Result & Stats

FK Partizan

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

IMT Novi Beograd

M. Ilić 26'

N. Krstić 67'

12/16/2024

Super Liga · Round 19Stadion Partizana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

FK Partizan59%

×Draw22%

IMT Novi Beograd19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK PartizanExpected goals in this matchIMT Novi Beograd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

0.99

FK Partizan

1.92

IMT Novi Beograd

0.99

FK Partizan creates 94% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 55 away

2.23

creates per match

1.20

0.78

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

FK Partizan

2.23

IMT Novi Beograd

1.20

allows per match

FK Partizan

0.78

IMT Novi Beograd

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Partizan+0.00on par

IMT Novi Beograd+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Partizan ↓

IMT Novi Beograd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

FK Partizan or draw

81%

FK Partizan or IMT Novi Beograd

78%

Draw or IMT Novi Beograd

41%

Winning margin

FK Partizan wins by 2+

35%

IMT Novi Beograd wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

FK Partizan 1+ goals

85%

FK Partizan 2+ goals

57%

FK Partizan 3+ goals

30%

IMT Novi Beograd 1+ goals

63%

IMT Novi Beograd 2+ goals

26%

IMT Novi Beograd 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

FK Partizan (draw refunded)

76%

IMT Novi Beograd (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Partizan at home — creates 2.23, concedes 0.78 · 148 matches

IMT Novi Beograd away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.60 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Partizan attack 2.23 + IMT Novi Beograd defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.92

IMT Novi Beograd attack 1.20 + FK Partizan defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

FK Partizan scores more

59%

level

22%

IMT Novi Beograd scores more

19%

FK Partizan at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "FK Partizan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

M. Ilić

FK Partizan · D

7.7

Match Events

26'

39'

44'

46'

58'

Z. Alilović← B. Natcho

58'

S. Kovač← D. Janković

64'

A. Stevanović← L. Luković

67'

N. Krstić

72'

Vladimir Radočaj

74'

Y. Court← A. Stevanović

77'

Siniša Popović

77'

V. Đurđević← M. Roganović

77'

N. Trifunović← A. Kalulu

81'

Aleksandar Šćekić

82'

M. Abiodun← V. Lučić

82'

I. Zulfić← V. Radočaj

85'

Mihajlo IlićPenalty cancelled

86'

D. Jovanović← N. Nikolić

89'

89'

90+5'

90+2'

90+2'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FKIMT

Overview

60%Possession40%

15Total Shots7

5Corners4

13Fouls18

Shots

15Total Shots7

4On Target4

5Off Target3

6Blocked0

14Inside Box4

1Outside Box3

Passing

60%Possession40%

505Total Passes333

426Accurate Passes246

84%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls18

2Yellow Cards8

1Offsides1