FK Partizan vs IMT Novi Beograd — Super Liga 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 55+ matches
FK Partizan59%
IMT Novi Beograd19%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
FK Partizan creates 94% more chances
Season form · 148 home / 55 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over55
- Under45
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes54
- No46
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
FK Partizan ↓
Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
FK Partizan at home — creates 2.23, concedes 0.78 · 148 matches
IMT Novi Beograd away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.60 · 55 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
FK Partizan attack 2.23 + IMT Novi Beograd defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.92
IMT Novi Beograd attack 1.20 + FK Partizan defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.99
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 59%?"
FK Partizan at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 59% does not mean "FK Partizan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
FK Crvena Zvezda
Radnicki NISFK Partizan
Cukaricki
Mladost Lucani
Napredak
Vojvodina
Proleter Novi SAD
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
Radnik Surdulica
FK Vozdovac
Macva
Backa
RAD
Dinamo Vranje
ZemunIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
FK Partizan host IMT Novi Beograd on Saturday, 17 February 2024 at 15:15. The match is part of the Super Liga 2018/2019 season.
FK Partizan 5 – 2 IMT Novi Beograd
FK Partizan beat IMT Novi Beograd 5-2 in Super Liga on February 17, 2024.
Goals: X. Severina (24'), B. Kovačević (45+1'), S. Marković (49' o.g.), G. Zahid (67' pen), M. Luković (81' pen), D. Castillo (86'), Goh Young-Jun (90').
FK Partizan controlled possession (56%) and registered 16 shots to 11.
The match was played at Stadion Partizana in Beograd.