IMT Novi Beograd 1–3 FK Crvena Zvezda

IMT Novi Beograd

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

FK Crvena Zvezda

Y. Court 56'

S. Katompa Mvumpa 90+2'

M. Rodić 64'

Milson 35'

10/6/2024

Super Liga · Round 11Stadion Lagator

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

IMT Novi Beograd21%

×Draw22%

FK Crvena Zvezda58%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IMT Novi BeogradExpected goals in this matchFK Crvena Zvezda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.98

IMT Novi Beograd

1.10

FK Crvena Zvezda

1.98

FK Crvena Zvezda creates 80% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 38 away

1.29

creates per match

2.71

1.26

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

IMT Novi Beograd

1.29

FK Crvena Zvezda

2.71

allows per match

IMT Novi Beograd

1.26

FK Crvena Zvezda

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IMT Novi Beograd+0.00on par

FK Crvena Zvezda+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IMT Novi Beograd ↓

FK Crvena Zvezda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–29%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

IMT Novi Beograd or draw

42%

IMT Novi Beograd or FK Crvena Zvezda

78%

Draw or FK Crvena Zvezda

79%

Winning margin

IMT Novi Beograd wins by 2+

8%

FK Crvena Zvezda wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

IMT Novi Beograd 1+ goals

67%

IMT Novi Beograd 2+ goals

30%

IMT Novi Beograd 3+ goals

10%

FK Crvena Zvezda 1+ goals

86%

FK Crvena Zvezda 2+ goals

59%

FK Crvena Zvezda 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

IMT Novi Beograd (draw refunded)

26%

FK Crvena Zvezda (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IMT Novi Beograd at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.26 · 42 matches

FK Crvena Zvezda away — creates 2.71, concedes 0.92 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IMT Novi Beograd attack 1.29 + FK Crvena Zvezda defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.10

FK Crvena Zvezda attack 2.71 + IMT Novi Beograd defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

IMT Novi Beograd scores more

21%

level

22%

FK Crvena Zvezda scores more

58%

FK Crvena Zvezda at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "FK Crvena Zvezda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

G. Kanga

FK Crvena Zvezda · M

9.7

Match Events

15'

Vasilije Novicic

35'

Milson↳ Dálcio

56'

Y. Court

57'

O. Lebi← M. Jović

57'

A. Stevanović← M. Do Couto

57'

L. Krstović← V. Novičić

62'

62'

64'

67'

76'

S. Katompa Mvumpa← A. Maksimović

85'

B. Billups← N. Krstić

87'

Seol Young-Woo← E. Prutsev

90+2'

Antoine Batisse

90+2'

S. Katompa Mvumpa↳ G. Kanga

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IMTFK

Overview

34%Possession66%

10Total Shots27

3Corners12

23Fouls11

Shots

10Total Shots27

4On Target12

3Off Target11

3Blocked4

7Inside Box20

3Outside Box7

Passing

34%Possession66%

265Total Passes521

187Accurate Passes458

71%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

7Saves3

Discipline

23Fouls11

2Yellow Cards0

1Offsides7