FK Crvena Zvezda 2–0 IMT Novi Beograd

FK Crvena Zvezda

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

IMT Novi Beograd

M. Rodić 48'

J. Šljivić 4'

4/3/2024

Super Liga · Round 28Stadion Rajko Mitić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

FK Crvena Zvezda70%

×Draw17%

IMT Novi Beograd13%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK Crvena ZvezdaExpected goals in this matchIMT Novi Beograd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.52

0.99

FK Crvena Zvezda

2.52

IMT Novi Beograd

0.99

FK Crvena Zvezda creates 155% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 39 away

3.29

creates per match

1.21

0.78

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

FK Crvena Zvezda

3.29

IMT Novi Beograd

1.21

allows per match

FK Crvena Zvezda

0.78

IMT Novi Beograd

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Crvena Zvezda+0.00on par

IMT Novi Beograd+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Crvena Zvezda ↓

IMT Novi Beograd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

FK Crvena Zvezda or draw

87%

FK Crvena Zvezda or IMT Novi Beograd

83%

Draw or IMT Novi Beograd

30%

Winning margin

FK Crvena Zvezda wins by 2+

48%

IMT Novi Beograd wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

FK Crvena Zvezda 1+ goals

92%

FK Crvena Zvezda 2+ goals

71%

FK Crvena Zvezda 3+ goals

45%

IMT Novi Beograd 1+ goals

63%

IMT Novi Beograd 2+ goals

26%

IMT Novi Beograd 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

FK Crvena Zvezda (draw refunded)

84%

IMT Novi Beograd (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Crvena Zvezda at home — creates 3.29, concedes 0.78 · 41 matches

IMT Novi Beograd away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.74 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Crvena Zvezda attack 3.29 + IMT Novi Beograd defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 2.52

IMT Novi Beograd attack 1.21 + FK Crvena Zvezda defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

FK Crvena Zvezda scores more

70%

level

17%

IMT Novi Beograd scores more

13%

FK Crvena Zvezda at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "FK Crvena Zvezda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

O. Glazer

FK Crvena Zvezda · G

8.3

Match Events

4'

J. Šljivić↳ G. Kanga

29'

Uroš Spajić

46'

I. Zulfić← V. Kijevčanin

46'

P. Ćirković← S. Bastaja

48'

M. Rodić

56'

Zarija Lambulić

59'

A. Katai← J. Šljivić

60'

M. Stamenić← Hwang In-Beom

61'

M. Jović← M. Luković

61'

L. Luković← A. Lutovac

66'

Marko StamenićPenalty cancelled

75'

U. Sremčević← J. Krasso

78'

Dimitrios Tzinovits

81'

B. Billups← V. Radočaj

83'

N. Knežević← G. Kanga

83'

V. Radojević← M. Rodić

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FKIMT

Overview

70%Possession30%

24Total Shots15

7Corners7

14Fouls17

Shots

24Total Shots15

6On Target5

10Off Target4

8Blocked6

12Inside Box10

12Outside Box5

Passing

70%Possession30%

625Total Passes257

547Accurate Passes187

88%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls17

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides2